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Route on-time record

TPA to RDU: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Tampa (Tampa International Airport) to Raleigh/Durham (Raleigh-Durham International Airport). 1,275 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 81% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.5% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Delta 1279 at 9:29 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

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TPA → RDU

Tampa to Raleigh/Durham: 1,275 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

81%

Cancelled

1.5%

avg delay 15 min

Best time to leave

9 AM to noon

89% on time vs 68% 3 to 6 PM

Most reliable airline

Delta

84% chance on time

Check TPA to RDU fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $102 (Frontier 2730 on 2026-10-26). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Delta 1279

    9:29 AM → 11:22 AM1h 51m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    88%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    89%
    Cancelled
    1.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    12 min
    • Arrived on time 89% of the time (287 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (9 AM to noon: 89% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 68%).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside RDU's trouble window: 57% of its 14 ground stops and delay programs started between 11 AM and 5 PM.

    Strong track record · 287 flights

    Find Delta 1279 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Southwest 2622

    2:20 PM → 4:10 PM1h 50m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    82%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    87%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    16 min
    • Arrived on time 87% of the time (55 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 55 scheduled flights.
    • Departs inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
    • Lands inside RDU's trouble window: 57% of its 14 ground stops and delay programs started between 11 AM and 5 PM.

    Limited track record · 55 flights

    Find Southwest 2622 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Frontier 2730

    8:00 AM → 9:56 AM1h 58m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    80%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    85%
    Cancelled
    1.7%
    Avg arrival delay
    12 min
    • Arrived on time 85% of the time (59 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • 52% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Limited track record · 59 flights

    Find Frontier 2730 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · Delta 1275

    8:59 PM → 10:49 PM1h 50m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    79%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    80%
    Cancelled
    1.9%
    Avg arrival delay
    17 min
    • Arrived on time 80% of the time (259 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • 80% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Strong track record · 259 flights

    Find Delta 1275 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · Frontier 3372

    4:26 PM → 6:21 PM1h 55m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-30.

    69%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    69%
    Cancelled
    2.2%
    Avg arrival delay
    24 min
    • Arrived on time 69% of the time (180 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 68% on time; 9 AM to noon: 89%).
    • Departs inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Moderate track record · 180 flights

    Find Frontier 3372 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Delta Air Lines84%

    648 flights · 85% on time as flown · 1.7% cancel

  • Southwest Airlines77%

    382 flights · 77% on time as flown · 1.0% cancel

  • Frontier Airlines73%

    245 flights · 73% on time as flown · 1.8% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM89%

    106 flights · avg delay 5 min

  • 9 AM to noon89%

    491 flights · avg delay 9 min

  • Noon to 3 PM77%

    87 flights · avg delay 28 min

  • 3 to 6 PM68%

    271 flights · avg delay 18 min

  • 6 to 9 PM78%

    229 flights · avg delay 20 min

  • After 9 PM74%

    91 flights · avg delay 18 min

Best day: Tuesday (88%). Worst: Sunday (78%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
80
F
79
M
75
A
87
M
83
J
80
J
74
A
83
S
91
O
91
N
86
D
80

What delays this route

  • Late-arriving aircraft60%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)24%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume15%
  • Severe weather1%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

Finding the most reliable connections from TPA to RDU…

TPA to RDU questions

What time of day is best to fly TPA to RDU?
9 AM to noon: 89% of flights arrived on time, against 68% for departures 3 to 6 PM.
Which airline is most on time from TPA to RDU?
Delta, with a season-adjusted 84% chance of operating and arriving on time over 648 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on TPA to RDU?
July (74% on time); the best was September (91%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

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Live status: FAA delays and ground stops