Route on-time record
TPA to MSP: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Tampa (Tampa International Airport) to Minneapolis (Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport / Wold–Chamberlain Field). 1,183 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 82% arrived within 15 minutes and 0.9% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Delta 2263 at 7:00 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
TPA → MSP
Tampa to Minneapolis: 1,183 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
82%
Cancelled
0.9%
avg delay 13 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
91% on time vs 71% 3 to 6 PM
Most reliable airline
Delta
81% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $265 (SY 214 on 2026-11-09). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Delta 2263
7:00 AM → 9:30 AM3h 28m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
90%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 91%
- Cancelled
- 0.6%
- Avg arrival delay
- 6 min
- Arrived on time 91% of the time (361 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 91% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 71%).
- Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 361 flights
Find Delta 2263 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Delta 2301
12:26 PM → 2:45 PM3h 19m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
85%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 87%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 6 min
- Arrived on time 87% of the time (45 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 45 scheduled flights.
- Departs inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
Limited track record · 45 flights
Find Delta 2301 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Delta 2264
6:11 PM → 8:45 PM3h 33m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
76%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 76%
- Cancelled
- 1.4%
- Avg arrival delay
- 17 min
- Arrived on time 76% of the time (215 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside TPA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 215 flights
Find Delta 2264 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Delta 2745
3:21 PM → 5:39 PM3h 18m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
72%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 68%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 53 min
- Arrived on time 68% of the time (25 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 71% on time; Before 9 AM: 91%).
- Departs inside TPA's trouble window: 76% of its 25 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
Limited track record · 25 flights
Find Delta 2745 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Delta Air Lines81%
1,183 flights · 82% on time as flown · 0.9% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM91%
363 flights · avg delay 6 min
- 9 AM to noon80%
84 flights · avg delay 9 min
- Noon to 3 PM83%
315 flights · avg delay 10 min
- 3 to 6 PM71%
134 flights · avg delay 30 min
- 6 to 9 PM76%
287 flights · avg delay 17 min
Best day: Wednesday (88%). Worst: Sunday (79%).
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Late-arriving aircraft38%
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)35%
- Air traffic control and airport volume23%
- Severe weather5%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
TPA to MSP questions
- What time of day is best to fly TPA to MSP?
- Before 9 AM: 91% of flights arrived on time, against 71% for departures 3 to 6 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
- Which airline is most on time from TPA to MSP?
- Delta, with a season-adjusted 81% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,183 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on TPA to MSP?
- March (76% on time); the best was October (93%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from TPA
- MSP to TPA (return)
- TPA to ATL 79%
- TPA to CLT 82%
- TPA to ORD 72%
- TPA to DEN 81%
- TPA to MIA 77%
- TPA to DFW 75%
- TPA to LGA 71%
- TPA to BOS 74%
- TPA to BWI 79%
- TPA to EWR 75%
- TPA to PHL 75%
- TPA to BNA 74%
Most on-time flights from TPA on every route →
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops