Route on-time record
ORD to SDF: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Chicago (Chicago O'Hare International Airport) to Louisville (Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport). 2,797 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 76% arrived within 15 minutes and 2.8% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Republic 4646 at 8:05 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
ORD → SDF
Chicago to Louisville: 2,797 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
76%
Cancelled
2.8%
avg delay 19 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
88% on time vs 70% noon to 3 PM
Most reliable airline
Envoy
80% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $226 (United 3605 on 2026-10-24). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Republic 4646 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
8:05 AM → 10:46 AM1h 41m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
85%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 93%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 3 min
- Arrived on time 93% of the time (43 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 43 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 88% on time; Noon to 3 PM: 70%).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 43 flights
Find 8:05 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Republic 4704 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
7:40 AM → 10:17 AM1h 37m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
83%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 91%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 4 min
- Arrived on time 91% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 88% on time; Noon to 3 PM: 70%).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (11 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 11 flights
Find 7:40 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Envoy 3849 · sold as American Eagle
1:34 PM → 4:05 PM1h 31m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
83%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 85%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 9 min
- Arrived on time 85% of the time (26 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (Noon to 3 PM: 70% on time; Before 9 AM: 88%).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (26 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 26 flights
Find 1:34 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Envoy 3601 · sold as American Eagle
9:07 AM → 11:32 AM1h 25m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
80%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 76%
- Cancelled
- 3.8%
- Avg arrival delay
- 24 min
- Arrived on time 76% of the time (25 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
- 66% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (25 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 25 flights
Find 9:07 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · SkyWest 4670 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
11:00 AM → 1:35 PM1h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
79%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 90%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 7 min
- Arrived on time 90% of the time (10 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (10 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 10 flights
Find 11:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#6 · Republic 4668 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
3:49 PM → 6:26 PM1h 37m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Republic 4599; its record covers all of them.
77%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 83%
- Cancelled
- 1.9%
- Avg arrival delay
- 12 min
- Arrived on time 83% of the time (53 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside ORD's trouble window: 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
- Short track record (53 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 53 flights
Find 3:49 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#7 · Republic 3598 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
5:45 PM → 8:16 PM1h 31m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
74%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 77%
- Cancelled
- 3.4%
- Avg arrival delay
- 20 min
- Arrived on time 77% of the time (336 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 3.4% of the time (12 of 348).
- Departs inside ORD's trouble window: 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
Strong track record · 336 flights
Find 5:45 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#8 · Republic 4630 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
6:57 PM → 9:30 PM1h 33m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20. Same departure also flew as Republic 4593; its record covers all of them.
74%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 75%
- Cancelled
- 7.7%
- Avg arrival delay
- 26 min
- Arrived on time 75% of the time (120 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 7.7% of the time (10 of 130).
- Departs inside ORD's trouble window: 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
- 62% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Moderate track record · 120 flights
Find 6:57 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#9 · SkyWest 5868 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
11:20 AM → 1:52 PM1h 32m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
74%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 69%
- Cancelled
- 7.1%
- Avg arrival delay
- 21 min
- Arrived on time 69% of the time (13 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
- 69% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (13 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 13 flights
Find 11:20 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#10 · Republic 3659 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
9:20 PM → 11:49 PM1h 29m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Republic 3410, 4697; its record covers all of them.
73%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 77%
- Cancelled
- 3.9%
- Avg arrival delay
- 13 min
- Arrived on time 77% of the time (74 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 3.9% of the time (3 of 77).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
- 54% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Moderate track record · 74 flights
Find 9:20 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Envoy Air (sold as American Eagle)80%
494 flights · 84% on time as flown · 1.4% cancel
- Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)73%
1,709 flights · 75% on time as flown · 3.3% cancel
- SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)68%
583 flights · 70% on time as flown · 2.5% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM88%
361 flights · avg delay 8 min
- 9 AM to noon75%
530 flights · avg delay 19 min
- Noon to 3 PM70%
297 flights · avg delay 19 min
- 3 to 6 PM76%
616 flights · avg delay 19 min
- 6 to 9 PM72%
886 flights · avg delay 23 min
- After 9 PM77%
107 flights · avg delay 15 min
Best day: Wednesday (80%). Worst: Sunday (74%).
Smarter routing
Nearby airports that run more on time
MDW → SDF 79% chance on time
Chicago Midway International Airport to Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport · 1,002 flights a year · 15 mi from your airports · yours: 73%
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Late-arriving aircraft51%
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)23%
- Air traffic control and airport volume19%
- Severe weather7%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
ORD to SDF questions
- What time of day is best to fly ORD to SDF?
- Before 9 AM: 88% of flights arrived on time, against 70% for departures noon to 3 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
- Which airline is most on time from ORD to SDF?
- Envoy, with a season-adjusted 80% chance of operating and arriving on time over 494 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on ORD to SDF?
- July (68% on time); the best was October (86%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from ORD
- SDF to ORD (return)
- ORD to LGA 67%
- ORD to BOS 68%
- ORD to LAX 74%
- ORD to DFW 70%
- ORD to DCA 69%
- ORD to MCO 73%
- ORD to ATL 74%
- ORD to MSP 69%
- ORD to DEN 74%
- ORD to IAH 75%
- ORD to EWR 69%
- ORD to DTW 71%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops