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Route on-time record

DCA to SDF: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Washington (Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport) to Louisville (Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport). 1,031 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 73% arrived within 15 minutes and 6.9% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was PSA 5400 at 7:34 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

DCA → SDF

Washington to Louisville: 1,031 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

73%

Cancelled

6.9%

avg delay 20 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

83% on time vs 62% 3 to 6 PM

Most reliable airline

Republic

69% chance on time

Check DCA to SDF fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $124 (American 4023 on 2026-10-21). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · PSA 5400 · sold as American Eagle

    7:34 AM → 9:41 AM2h 07m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as PSA 5440; its record covers all of them.

    85%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    98%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    2 min
    • Arrived on time 98% of the time (51 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 51 scheduled flights.
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 62%).
    • Departs outside DCA's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Limited track record · 51 flights

    Find 7:34 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Republic 4768 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    8:30 AM → 10:32 AM2h 02m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    77%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    88%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    6 min
    • Arrived on time 88% of the time (26 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 83% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 62%).
    • Departs outside DCA's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (26 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 26 flights

    Find 8:30 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Republic 4672 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    7:37 PM → 9:39 PM2h 02m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Republic 4515; its record covers all of them.

    67%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    73%
    Cancelled
    7.8%
    Avg arrival delay
    25 min
    • Arrived on time 73% of the time (332 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 7.8% of the time (28 of 361).
    • Departs outside DCA's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • 59% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Strong track record · 332 flights

    Find 7:37 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · PSA 5461 · sold as American Eagle

    1:56 PM → 3:57 PM2h 01m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    65%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    74%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    25 min
    • Arrived on time 74% of the time (42 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 42 scheduled flights.
    • Departs inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • 57% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Limited track record · 42 flights

    Find 1:56 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · PSA 5189 · sold as American Eagle

    2:21 PM → 4:20 PM1h 59m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    59%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    60%
    Cancelled
    4.9%
    Avg arrival delay
    24 min
    • Arrived on time 60% of the time (58 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 4.9% of the time (3 of 61).
    • Departs inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • 55% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Limited track record · 58 flights

    Find 2:21 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)69%

    423 flights · 74% on time as flown · 7.0% cancel

  • PSA Airlines (sold as American Eagle)67%

    590 flights · 72% on time as flown · 6.8% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM83%

    339 flights · avg delay 9 min

  • Noon to 3 PM67%

    190 flights · avg delay 24 min

  • 3 to 6 PM62%

    142 flights · avg delay 30 min

  • 6 to 9 PM72%

    348 flights · avg delay 26 min

Best day: Saturday (84%). Worst: Friday (76%).

Smarter routing

Nearby airports that run more on time

  • BWI → SDF 77% chance on time

    Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport to Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport · 890 flights a year · 30 mi from your airports · yours: 68%

    Rank flightsFares

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
76
F
73
M
75
A
82
M
76
J
76
J
63
A
76
S
88
O
89
N
86
D
78

What delays this route

  • Late-arriving aircraft54%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)25%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume14%
  • Severe weather8%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

DCA to SDF questions

What time of day is best to fly DCA to SDF?
Before 9 AM: 83% of flights arrived on time, against 62% for departures 3 to 6 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from DCA to SDF?
Republic, with a season-adjusted 69% chance of operating and arriving on time over 423 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on DCA to SDF?
July (63% on time); the best was October (89%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from DCA

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops