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Route on-time record

MDW to TUL: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Chicago (Chicago Midway International Airport) to Tulsa (Tulsa International Airport). 430 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 78% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.2% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 391 at 12:55 PM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MDW → TUL

Chicago to Tulsa: 430 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

78%

Cancelled

1.2%

avg delay 17 min

Best time to leave

Noon to 3 PM

90% on time vs 62% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Southwest

77% chance on time

Check MDW to TUL fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Southwest 391

    12:55 PM → 2:50 PM1h 55m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    85%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    100%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    1 min
    • Arrived on time 100% of the time (16 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Noon to 3 PM: 90% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 62%).
    • Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
    • Short track record (16 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 16 flights

    Find Southwest 391 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Southwest 3400

    10:20 AM → 12:15 PM1h 55m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29.

    81%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    85%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    6 min
    • Arrived on time 85% of the time (39 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 39 scheduled flights.
    • Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
    • Short track record (39 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 39 flights

    Find Southwest 3400 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Southwest 4014

    10:00 AM → 12:00 PM2h 00m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    77%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    73%
    Cancelled
    4.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    22 min
    • Arrived on time 73% of the time (22 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
    • Short track record (22 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 22 flights

    Find Southwest 4014 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · Southwest 3402

    9:50 PM → 11:45 PM1h 55m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    72%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    74%
    Cancelled
    1.9%
    Avg arrival delay
    18 min
    • Arrived on time 74% of the time (53 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • 60% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
    • Short track record (53 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 53 flights

    Find Southwest 3402 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · Southwest 4016

    9:35 PM → 11:35 PM2h 00m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    69%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    61%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    45 min
    • Arrived on time 61% of the time (28 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • 66% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
    • Short track record (28 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 28 flights

    Find Southwest 4016 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Southwest Airlines77%

    430 flights · 78% on time as flown · 1.2% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • 9 AM to noon83%

    97 flights · avg delay 9 min

  • Noon to 3 PM90%

    91 flights · avg delay 7 min

  • 3 to 6 PM75%

    100 flights · avg delay 20 min

  • 6 to 9 PM62%

    53 flights · avg delay 27 min

  • After 9 PM67%

    74 flights · avg delay 30 min

Best day: Wednesday (85%). Worst: Friday (71%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
78
F
-
M
74
A
88
M
76
J
69
J
66
A
84
S
82
O
84
N
91
D
89

What delays this route

  • Late-arriving aircraft62%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)28%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume6%
  • Severe weather4%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MDW to TUL questions

What time of day is best to fly MDW to TUL?
Noon to 3 PM: 90% of flights arrived on time, against 62% for departures 6 to 9 PM.
Which airline is most on time from MDW to TUL?
Southwest, with a season-adjusted 77% chance of operating and arriving on time over 430 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MDW to TUL?
July (66% on time); the best was November (91%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from MDW

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops