Route on-time record

MDW to MCO: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Chicago (Chicago Midway International Airport) to Orlando (Orlando International Airport). 2,789 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 77% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.4% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 3838 at 5:35 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MDW → MCO

Chicago to Orlando: 2,789 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

77%

Cancelled

1.4%

avg delay 15 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

87% on time vs 64% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Frontier

78% chance on time

Check MDW to MCO fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

#1 · Southwest 3838
5:35 AM → 9:05 AM2h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
90%
chance on time
On time (history)
93%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
4 min
- Arrived on time 93% of the time (55 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 55 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 64%).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 55 flights
Find Southwest 3838 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#2 · Southwest 3306
7:45 AM → 11:20 AM2h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 3962; its record covers all of them.
86%
chance on time
On time (history)
90%
Cancelled
1.1%
Avg arrival delay
5 min
- Arrived on time 90% of the time (86 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 64%).
- Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
Moderate track record · 86 flights
Find Southwest 3306 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#3 · Southwest 1674
6:00 AM → 9:40 AM2h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
86%
chance on time
On time (history)
88%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
9 min
- Arrived on time 88% of the time (33 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 33 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 64%).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 33 flights
Find Southwest 1674 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#4 · Southwest 755
9:30 AM → 1:05 PM2h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
83%
chance on time
On time (history)
87%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
6 min
- Arrived on time 87% of the time (55 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 55 scheduled flights.
- Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- Lands inside MCO's trouble window: 76% of its 89 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
Limited track record · 55 flights
Find Southwest 755 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#5 · Frontier 1458
6:15 AM → 10:05 AM2h 46m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-13.
79%
chance on time
On time (history)
76%
Cancelled
0.9%
Avg arrival delay
19 min
- Arrived on time 76% of the time (109 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 64%).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
Moderate track record · 109 flights
Find Frontier 1458 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#6 · Southwest 3488
1:25 PM → 5:00 PM2h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
79%
chance on time
On time (history)
84%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
6 min
- Arrived on time 84% of the time (31 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 32 scheduled flights.
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MCO's trouble window: 76% of its 89 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
Limited track record · 31 flights
Find Southwest 3488 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#7 · Frontier 3854
2:56 PM → 6:42 PM2h 48m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-26.
79%
chance on time
On time (history)
82%
Cancelled
2.5%
Avg arrival delay
23 min
- Arrived on time 82% of the time (117 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MCO's trouble window: 76% of its 89 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
- 56% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Moderate track record · 117 flights
Find Frontier 3854 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#8 · Southwest 1781
10:00 AM → 1:40 PM2h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-04.
75%
chance on time
On time (history)
62%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
13 min
- Arrived on time 62% of the time (13 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- Lands inside MCO's trouble window: 76% of its 89 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
- Short track record (13 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 13 flights
Find Southwest 1781 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#9 · Frontier 1536
9:51 PM → 1:38 AM2h 49m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-18.
75%
chance on time
On time (history)
80%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
24 min
- Arrived on time 80% of the time (25 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- 76% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (25 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 25 flights
Find Frontier 1536 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#10 · Southwest 3298
3:45 PM → 7:20 PM2h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
74%
chance on time
On time (history)
74%
Cancelled
3.0%
Avg arrival delay
18 min
- Arrived on time 74% of the time (31 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 3.0% of the time (1 of 33).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (31 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 31 flights
Find Southwest 3298 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

Frontier Airlines78%
255 flights · 79% on time as flown · 1.5% cancel
Southwest Airlines75%
2,534 flights · 76% on time as flown · 1.4% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

Before 9 AM87%
868 flights · avg delay 7 min
9 AM to noon82%
567 flights · avg delay 11 min
Noon to 3 PM76%
343 flights · avg delay 15 min
3 to 6 PM65%
561 flights · avg delay 23 min
6 to 9 PM64%
376 flights · avg delay 24 min

Best day: Tuesday (82%). Worst: Sunday (72%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

What delays this route

Late-arriving aircraft37%
Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)34%
Air traffic control and airport volume27%
Severe weather2%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MDW to MCO questions

What time of day is best to fly MDW to MCO?: Before 9 AM: 87% of flights arrived on time, against 64% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MDW to MCO?: Frontier, with a season-adjusted 78% chance of operating and arriving on time over 255 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MDW to MCO?: July (62% on time); the best was November (87%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?: No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

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