Route on-time record
TUL to MDW: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Tulsa (Tulsa International Airport) to Chicago (Chicago Midway International Airport). 430 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 84% arrived within 15 minutes and 0.5% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 146 at 5:05 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
TUL → MDW
Tulsa to Chicago: 430 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
84%
Cancelled
0.5%
avg delay 12 min
Best time to leave
9 AM to noon
98% on time vs 75% 3 to 6 PM
Most reliable airline
Southwest
84% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $314 (Southwest 4207 on 2026-10-23). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Southwest 146
5:05 AM → 6:50 AM1h 45m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 184, 2220; its record covers all of them.
86%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 85%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 15 min
- Arrived on time 85% of the time (111 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 111 scheduled flights.
Moderate track record · 111 flights
Find Southwest 146 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Southwest 3630
1:45 PM → 3:25 PM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
85%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 100%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 2 min
- Arrived on time 100% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Short track record (8 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 8 flights
Find Southwest 3630 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Southwest 2446
2:30 PM → 4:10 PM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-01.
83%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 75%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 16 min
- Arrived on time 75% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- 73% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (8 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 8 flights
Find Southwest 2446 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Southwest 649
3:55 PM → 5:40 PM1h 45m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29. Same departure also flew as Southwest 4279; its record covers all of them.
76%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 71%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 17 min
- Arrived on time 71% of the time (38 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 38 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 75% on time; 9 AM to noon: 98%).
- 76% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Limited track record · 38 flights
Find Southwest 649 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Southwest Airlines84%
430 flights · 84% on time as flown · 0.5% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM89%
157 flights · avg delay 9 min
- 9 AM to noon98%
57 flights · avg delay 2 min
- Noon to 3 PM80%
56 flights · avg delay 23 min
- 3 to 6 PM75%
160 flights · avg delay 16 min
Best day: Tuesday (88%). Worst: Friday (79%).
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Late-arriving aircraft53%
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)26%
- Air traffic control and airport volume17%
- Severe weather4%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
TUL to MDW questions
- What time of day is best to fly TUL to MDW?
- 9 AM to noon: 98% of flights arrived on time, against 75% for departures 3 to 6 PM.
- Which airline is most on time from TUL to MDW?
- Southwest, with a season-adjusted 84% chance of operating and arriving on time over 430 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on TUL to MDW?
- May (76% on time); the best was October (93%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from TUL
- MDW to TUL (return)
- TUL to DFW 78%
- TUL to DEN 79%
- TUL to ORD 76%
- TUL to ATL 86%
- TUL to PHX 82%
- TUL to IAH 84%
- TUL to DAL 86%
- TUL to LAS 83%
- TUL to CLT 85%
- TUL to HOU 86%
- TUL to LGA 79%
- TUL to STL 89%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops