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Route on-time record

MDW to BNA: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Chicago (Chicago Midway International Airport) to Nashville (Nashville International Airport). 1,905 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 80% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.3% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 116 at 5:30 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MDW → BNA

Chicago to Nashville: 1,905 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

80%

Cancelled

1.3%

avg delay 13 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

94% on time vs 62% after 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Southwest

79% chance on time

Check MDW to BNA fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $161 (Southwest 508 on 2026-11-08). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Southwest 116

    5:30 AM → 6:55 AM1h 25m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29. Same departure also flew as Southwest 683; its record covers all of them.

    93%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    97%
    Cancelled
    2.6%
    Avg arrival delay
    2 min
    • Arrived on time 97% of the time (37 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 94% on time; After 9 PM: 62%).
    • Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (37 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 37 flights

    Find Southwest 116 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Southwest 2003

    8:00 AM → 9:30 AM1h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 3815; its record covers all of them.

    92%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    96%
    Cancelled
    2.4%
    Avg arrival delay
    4 min
    • Arrived on time 96% of the time (80 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 94% on time; After 9 PM: 62%).
    • Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.

    Moderate track record · 80 flights

    Find Southwest 2003 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Southwest 3233

    12:00 PM → 1:30 PM1h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    83%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    84%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    6 min
    • Arrived on time 84% of the time (55 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 55 scheduled flights.
    • Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
    • Lands inside BNA's trouble window: 64% of its 44 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Limited track record · 55 flights

    Find Southwest 3233 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · Southwest 550

    2:15 PM → 3:45 PM1h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-30.

    80%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    75%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    20 min
    • Arrived on time 75% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside BNA's trouble window: 64% of its 44 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • 56% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Limited track record · 8 flights

    Find Southwest 550 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · Southwest 4471

    11:35 AM → 1:05 PM1h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    78%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    79%
    Cancelled
    6.7%
    Avg arrival delay
    21 min
    • Arrived on time 79% of the time (14 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
    • Lands inside BNA's trouble window: 64% of its 44 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • Short track record (14 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 14 flights

    Find Southwest 4471 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · Southwest 1442

    11:15 AM → 12:45 PM1h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-01.

    78%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    75%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    14 min
    • Arrived on time 75% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
    • 76% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
    • Short track record (8 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 8 flights

    Find Southwest 1442 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · Southwest 416

    5:30 PM → 7:00 PM1h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-04.

    76%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    77%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    9 min
    • Arrived on time 77% of the time (13 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (13 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 13 flights

    Find Southwest 416 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  8. #8 · Southwest 3234

    3:50 PM → 5:20 PM1h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    76%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    77%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    11 min
    • Arrived on time 77% of the time (30 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 30 scheduled flights.
    • Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside BNA's trouble window: 64% of its 44 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Limited track record · 30 flights

    Find Southwest 3234 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  9. #9 · Southwest 3554

    4:05 PM → 5:35 PM1h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    75%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    76%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    26 min
    • Arrived on time 76% of the time (33 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 33 scheduled flights.
    • Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside BNA's trouble window: 64% of its 44 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Limited track record · 33 flights

    Find Southwest 3554 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  10. #10 · Southwest 1401

    3:00 PM → 4:30 PM1h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    74%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    72%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    12 min
    • Arrived on time 72% of the time (32 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 32 scheduled flights.
    • Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside BNA's trouble window: 64% of its 44 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Limited track record · 32 flights

    Find Southwest 1401 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Southwest Airlines79%

    1,905 flights · 80% on time as flown · 1.3% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM94%

    553 flights · avg delay 3 min

  • 9 AM to noon82%

    301 flights · avg delay 12 min

  • Noon to 3 PM83%

    252 flights · avg delay 10 min

  • 3 to 6 PM71%

    293 flights · avg delay 18 min

  • 6 to 9 PM72%

    324 flights · avg delay 19 min

  • After 9 PM62%

    182 flights · avg delay 28 min

Best day: Tuesday (86%). Worst: Thursday (79%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
85
F
90
M
82
A
84
M
77
J
77
J
72
A
81
S
88
O
82
N
87
D
84

What delays this route

  • Late-arriving aircraft52%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)28%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume18%
  • Severe weather2%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MDW to BNA questions

What time of day is best to fly MDW to BNA?
Before 9 AM: 94% of flights arrived on time, against 62% for departures after 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MDW to BNA?
Southwest, with a season-adjusted 79% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,905 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MDW to BNA?
July (72% on time); the best was February (90%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from MDW

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops