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Route on-time record

PVD to MDW: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Providence/Warwick (Rhode Island T. F. Green International Airport) to Chicago (Chicago Midway International Airport). 768 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 85% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.6% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 2654 at 6:50 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

PVD → MDW

Providence/Warwick to Chicago: 768 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

85%

Cancelled

1.6%

avg delay 11 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

93% on time vs 68% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Southwest

83% chance on time

Check PVD to MDW fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $288 (Southwest 3905 on 2026-10-27). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Southwest 2654

    6:50 AM → 8:20 AM2h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 2549; its record covers all of them.

    91%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    93%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    2 min
    • Arrived on time 93% of the time (61 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 61 scheduled flights.
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 93% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 68%).
    • Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.

    Moderate track record · 61 flights

    Find Southwest 2654 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Southwest 1401

    1:00 PM → 2:35 PM2h 35m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29.

    85%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    85%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    10 min
    • Arrived on time 85% of the time (39 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 39 scheduled flights.
    • Short track record (39 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 39 flights

    Find Southwest 1401 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Southwest 4306

    12:40 PM → 2:25 PM2h 45m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    84%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    87%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    19 min
    • Arrived on time 87% of the time (23 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • 94% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
    • Short track record (23 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 23 flights

    Find Southwest 4306 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · Southwest 3376

    7:30 AM → 9:05 AM2h 35m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    82%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    79%
    Cancelled
    4.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    10 min
    • Arrived on time 79% of the time (24 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 93% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 68%).
    • Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
    • Short track record (24 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 24 flights

    Find Southwest 3376 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · Southwest 4307

    6:40 PM → 8:20 PM2h 40m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    77%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    77%
    Cancelled
    6.1%
    Avg arrival delay
    20 min
    • Arrived on time 77% of the time (31 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 6.1% of the time (2 of 33).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 68% on time; Before 9 AM: 93%).
    • Short track record (31 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 31 flights

    Find Southwest 4307 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · Southwest 3974

    7:05 PM → 8:35 PM2h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29.

    71%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    68%
    Cancelled
    2.6%
    Avg arrival delay
    13 min
    • Arrived on time 68% of the time (38 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 68% on time; Before 9 AM: 93%).
    • 55% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
    • Short track record (38 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 38 flights

    Find Southwest 3974 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Southwest Airlines83%

    768 flights · 85% on time as flown · 1.6% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM93%

    354 flights · avg delay 4 min

  • 9 AM to noon92%

    37 flights · avg delay 6 min

  • Noon to 3 PM86%

    132 flights · avg delay 11 min

  • 3 to 6 PM80%

    58 flights · avg delay 11 min

  • 6 to 9 PM68%

    187 flights · avg delay 26 min

Best day: Tuesday (88%). Worst: Sunday (78%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
93
F
89
M
81
A
84
M
78
J
78
J
73
A
84
S
90
O
91
N
84
D
81

What delays this route

  • Late-arriving aircraft50%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume29%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)19%
  • Severe weather2%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

PVD to MDW questions

What time of day is best to fly PVD to MDW?
Before 9 AM: 93% of flights arrived on time, against 68% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from PVD to MDW?
Southwest, with a season-adjusted 83% chance of operating and arriving on time over 768 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on PVD to MDW?
July (73% on time); the best was January (93%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from PVD

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops