Route on-time record
MDW to ROC: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Chicago (Chicago Midway International Airport) to Rochester (Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport). 431 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 71% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.6% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 1711 at 12:50 PM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
MDW → ROC
Chicago to Rochester: 431 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
71%
Cancelled
1.6%
avg delay 18 min
Best time to leave
3 to 6 PM
83% on time vs 62% 6 to 9 PM
Most reliable airline
Southwest
70% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $435 (Southwest 2246 on 2026-10-26). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Southwest 1711
12:50 PM → 3:25 PM1h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29.
78%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 85%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 8 min
- Arrived on time 85% of the time (40 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 40 scheduled flights.
- Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- Short track record (40 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 40 flights
Find Southwest 1711 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Southwest 883
6:45 PM → 9:20 PM1h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
66%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 67%
- Cancelled
- 3.6%
- Avg arrival delay
- 18 min
- Arrived on time 67% of the time (52 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 3.6% of the time (2 of 55).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 62% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 83%).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 52 flights
Find Southwest 883 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Southwest 1466
1:35 PM → 4:05 PM1h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
65%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 55%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 22 min
- Arrived on time 55% of the time (33 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 33 scheduled flights.
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (33 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 33 flights
Find Southwest 1466 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Southwest 3304
7:40 PM → 10:15 PM1h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
58%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 50%
- Cancelled
- 3.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 29 min
- Arrived on time 50% of the time (32 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 3.0% of the time (1 of 33).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 62% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 83%).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 32 flights
Find Southwest 3304 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Southwest Airlines70%
431 flights · 71% on time as flown · 1.6% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Noon to 3 PM76%
141 flights · avg delay 13 min
- 3 to 6 PM83%
72 flights · avg delay 13 min
- 6 to 9 PM62%
195 flights · avg delay 24 min
Best day: Saturday (80%). Worst: Friday (68%).
Smarter routing
Nearby airports that run more on time
MDW → BUF 74% chance on time
Chicago Midway International Airport to Buffalo Niagara International Airport · 830 flights a year · 55 mi from your airports · yours: 70%
ORD → ROC 73% chance on time
Chicago O'Hare International Airport to Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport · 2,275 flights a year · 15 mi from your airports · yours: 70%
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Late-arriving aircraft59%
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)30%
- Air traffic control and airport volume9%
- Severe weather3%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
MDW to ROC questions
- What time of day is best to fly MDW to ROC?
- 3 to 6 PM: 83% of flights arrived on time, against 62% for departures 6 to 9 PM.
- Which airline is most on time from MDW to ROC?
- Southwest, with a season-adjusted 70% chance of operating and arriving on time over 431 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on MDW to ROC?
- May (58% on time); the best was October (84%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from MDW
- ROC to MDW (return)
- MDW to ATL 80%
- MDW to PHX 76%
- MDW to MCO 77%
- MDW to MSP 78%
- MDW to LAS 77%
- MDW to DEN 73%
- MDW to LGA 69%
- MDW to DAL 77%
- MDW to DCA 69%
- MDW to MCI 79%
- MDW to BNA 80%
- MDW to BWI 79%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops