Route on-time record

MCO to MDW: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Orlando (Orlando International Airport) to Chicago (Chicago Midway International Airport). 2,796 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 71% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.9% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 3142 at 7:20 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MCO → MDW

Orlando to Chicago: 2,796 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

71%

Cancelled

1.9%

avg delay 18 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

92% on time vs 54% after 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Frontier

73% chance on time

Check MCO to MDW fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

#1 · Southwest 3142
7:20 AM → 9:15 AM2h 55m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 2300; its record covers all of them.
88%
chance on time
On time (history)
93%
Cancelled
3.4%
Avg arrival delay
2 min
- Arrived on time 93% of the time (85 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 3.4% of the time (3 of 88).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 92% on time; After 9 PM: 54%).
- Departs outside MCO's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 76% of its 89 ground stops and delay programs started).
Moderate track record · 85 flights
Find Southwest 3142 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#2 · Southwest 2540
8:35 AM → 10:30 AM2h 55m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-05. Same departure also flew as Southwest 3883; its record covers all of them.
80%
chance on time
On time (history)
82%
Cancelled
5.6%
Avg arrival delay
10 min
- Arrived on time 82% of the time (17 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 92% on time; After 9 PM: 54%).
- Departs outside MCO's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 76% of its 89 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
Limited track record · 17 flights
Find Southwest 2540 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#3 · Frontier 3853
11:05 AM → 1:08 PM3h 02m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-18.
76%
chance on time
On time (history)
77%
Cancelled
1.6%
Avg arrival delay
22 min
- Arrived on time 77% of the time (189 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MCO's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 76% of its 89 ground stops and delay programs started).
Moderate track record · 189 flights
Find Frontier 3853 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#4 · Southwest 3144
11:40 AM → 1:30 PM2h 50m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29. Same departure also flew as Southwest 3862; its record covers all of them.
75%
chance on time
On time (history)
76%
Cancelled
1.8%
Avg arrival delay
18 min
- Arrived on time 76% of the time (55 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MCO's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 76% of its 89 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (55 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 55 flights
Find Southwest 3144 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#5 · Southwest 2619
10:10 AM → 12:00 PM2h 50m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 1669; its record covers all of them.
74%
chance on time
On time (history)
76%
Cancelled
2.4%
Avg arrival delay
15 min
- Arrived on time 76% of the time (80 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MCO's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 76% of its 89 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
Moderate track record · 80 flights
Find Southwest 2619 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#6 · Southwest 3269
3:40 PM → 5:30 PM2h 50m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
72%
chance on time
On time (history)
81%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
13 min
- Arrived on time 81% of the time (31 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 31 scheduled flights.
- Departs inside MCO's trouble window: 76% of its 89 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
- Short track record (31 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 31 flights
Find Southwest 3269 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#7 · Southwest 1739
12:50 PM → 2:45 PM2h 55m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
70%
chance on time
On time (history)
69%
Cancelled
6.7%
Avg arrival delay
44 min
- Arrived on time 69% of the time (13 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MCO's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 76% of its 89 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (13 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 13 flights
Find Southwest 1739 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#8 · Frontier 1457
6:48 PM → 8:53 PM3h 05m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-26.
70%
chance on time
On time (history)
67%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
30 min
- Arrived on time 67% of the time (52 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 52 scheduled flights.
- Departs inside MCO's trouble window: 76% of its 89 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
- 65% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Limited track record · 52 flights
Find Frontier 1457 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#9 · Southwest 3783
11:55 AM → 1:45 PM2h 50m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-27.
68%
chance on time
On time (history)
56%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
37 min
- Arrived on time 56% of the time (16 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MCO's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 76% of its 89 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (16 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 16 flights
Find Southwest 3783 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#10 · Southwest 138
10:20 PM → 12:15 AM2h 55m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-30.
68%
chance on time
On time (history)
71%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
22 min
- Arrived on time 71% of the time (31 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 31 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (After 9 PM: 54% on time; Before 9 AM: 92%).
- Departs outside MCO's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 76% of its 89 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 31 flights
Find Southwest 138 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

Frontier Airlines73%
254 flights · 74% on time as flown · 1.4% cancel
Southwest Airlines69%
2,542 flights · 71% on time as flown · 1.9% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

Before 9 AM92%
546 flights · avg delay 4 min
9 AM to noon79%
526 flights · avg delay 13 min
Noon to 3 PM73%
380 flights · avg delay 21 min
3 to 6 PM62%
616 flights · avg delay 22 min
6 to 9 PM56%
544 flights · avg delay 28 min
After 9 PM54%
184 flights · avg delay 28 min

Best day: Tuesday (78%). Worst: Sunday (68%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

What delays this route

Late-arriving aircraft41%
Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)31%
Air traffic control and airport volume19%
Severe weather8%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MCO to MDW questions

What time of day is best to fly MCO to MDW?: Before 9 AM: 92% of flights arrived on time, against 54% for departures after 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MCO to MDW?: Frontier, with a season-adjusted 73% chance of operating and arriving on time over 254 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MCO to MDW?: July (62% on time); the best was November (86%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?: No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from MCO

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops

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