Route on-time record
SEA to SMF: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Seattle (Seattle–Tacoma International Airport) to Sacramento (Sacramento International Airport). 4,429 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 81% arrived within 15 minutes and 0.4% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was SkyWest 3881 at 8:20 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
SEA → SMF
Seattle to Sacramento: 4,429 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
81%
Cancelled
0.4%
avg delay 11 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
93% on time vs 69% after 9 PM
Most reliable airline
SkyWest
88% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $74 (Alaska 764 on 2026-11-14). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · SkyWest 3881 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
8:20 AM → 10:25 AM2h 05m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
92%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 92%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 7 min
- Arrived on time 92% of the time (355 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 357 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 93% on time; After 9 PM: 69%).
- Departs outside SEA's trouble window (4 PM to 10 PM, when 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 355 flights
Find 8:20 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · SkyWest 3505 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
2:30 PM → 4:29 PM1h 59m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-12.
91%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 92%
- Cancelled
- 0.5%
- Avg arrival delay
- 7 min
- Arrived on time 92% of the time (217 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside SEA's trouble window (4 PM to 10 PM, when 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 217 flights
Find 2:30 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · SkyWest 4125 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
10:25 AM → 12:32 PM2h 07m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
91%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 91%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 6 min
- Arrived on time 91% of the time (349 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 349 scheduled flights.
- Departs outside SEA's trouble window (4 PM to 10 PM, when 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started).
Strong track record · 349 flights
Find 10:25 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · SkyWest 4131 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
7:56 PM → 9:58 PM2h 02m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
89%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 90%
- Cancelled
- 0.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 6 min
- Arrived on time 90% of the time (318 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside SEA's trouble window: 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started between 4 PM and 10 PM.
Strong track record · 318 flights
Find 7:56 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · SkyWest 4153 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
2:45 PM → 4:41 PM1h 56m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
89%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 92%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 4 min
- Arrived on time 92% of the time (49 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 49 scheduled flights.
- Departs outside SEA's trouble window (4 PM to 10 PM, when 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (49 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 49 flights
Find 2:45 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#6 · SkyWest 3272 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
7:33 AM → 9:34 AM2h 01m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
89%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 91%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 3 min
- Arrived on time 91% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 93% on time; After 9 PM: 69%).
- Departs outside SEA's trouble window (4 PM to 10 PM, when 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (11 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 11 flights
Find 7:33 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#7 · SkyWest 4043 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
5:08 PM → 6:35 PM2h 01m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
88%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 89%
- Cancelled
- 0.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 8 min
- Arrived on time 89% of the time (298 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside SEA's trouble window: 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started between 4 PM and 10 PM.
Strong track record · 298 flights
Find 5:08 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#8 · Southwest 733
5:45 AM → 7:30 AM1h 45m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-01.
87%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 100%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 1 min
- Arrived on time 100% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 93% on time; After 9 PM: 69%).
- Departs outside SEA's trouble window (4 PM to 10 PM, when 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (8 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 8 flights
Find Southwest 733 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#9 · Southwest 2862
5:00 AM → 6:50 AM1h 50m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 1738; its record covers all of them.
87%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 91%
- Cancelled
- 2.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 5 min
- Arrived on time 91% of the time (85 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 93% on time; After 9 PM: 69%).
- Departs outside SEA's trouble window (4 PM to 10 PM, when 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started).
Moderate track record · 85 flights
Find Southwest 2862 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#10 · Alaska 1540
9:53 AM → 11:58 AM2h 05m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
86%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 90%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 4 min
- Arrived on time 90% of the time (40 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 40 scheduled flights.
- Departs outside SEA's trouble window (4 PM to 10 PM, when 54% of its 68 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (40 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 40 flights
Find Alaska 1540 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)88%
1,979 flights · 89% on time as flown · 0.3% cancel
- Alaska Airlines77%
1,280 flights · 78% on time as flown · 0.6% cancel
- Southwest Airlines72%
1,170 flights · 71% on time as flown · 0.4% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM93%
881 flights · avg delay 5 min
- 9 AM to noon82%
901 flights · avg delay 10 min
- Noon to 3 PM83%
666 flights · avg delay 10 min
- 3 to 6 PM75%
679 flights · avg delay 13 min
- 6 to 9 PM76%
889 flights · avg delay 13 min
- After 9 PM69%
413 flights · avg delay 17 min
Best day: Tuesday (84%). Worst: Friday (76%).
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Late-arriving aircraft46%
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)39%
- Air traffic control and airport volume8%
- Severe weather7%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
SEA to SMF questions
- What time of day is best to fly SEA to SMF?
- Before 9 AM: 93% of flights arrived on time, against 69% for departures after 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
- Which airline is most on time from SEA to SMF?
- SkyWest, with a season-adjusted 88% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,979 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on SEA to SMF?
- June (73% on time); the best was April (85%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from SEA
- SMF to SEA (return)
- SEA to LAX 83%
- SEA to PHX 79%
- SEA to SFO 69%
- SEA to ANC 74%
- SEA to DEN 77%
- SEA to LAS 77%
- SEA to ORD 75%
- SEA to GEG 81%
- SEA to DFW 77%
- SEA to PDX 82%
- SEA to SAN 78%
- SEA to SJC 82%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops