Route on-time record
PAE to PHX: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Everett (Seattle Paine Field International Airport) to Phoenix (Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport). 632 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 85% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.1% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Alaska 747 at 10:45 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
PAE → PHX
Everett to Phoenix: 632 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
85%
Cancelled
1.1%
avg delay 13 min
Best time to leave
9 AM to noon
92% on time vs 78% 3 to 6 PM
Most reliable airline
Alaska
85% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $251 (Alaska 515 on 2026-10-21). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Alaska 747
10:45 AM → 1:40 PM2h 55m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Alaska 163; its record covers all of them.
89%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 90%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 5 min
- Arrived on time 90% of the time (129 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 129 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (9 AM to noon: 92% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 78%).
Moderate track record · 129 flights
Find Alaska 747 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Alaska 732
9:40 AM → 12:36 PM2h 56m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-03-17.
84%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 85%
- Cancelled
- 1.8%
- Avg arrival delay
- 10 min
- Arrived on time 85% of the time (214 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (9 AM to noon: 92% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 78%).
- 52% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Strong track record · 214 flights
Find Alaska 732 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Alaska 515
4:56 PM → 7:49 PM2h 53m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-11. Same departure also flew as Alaska 513; its record covers all of them.
79%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 77%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 17 min
- Arrived on time 77% of the time (118 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 118 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 78% on time; 9 AM to noon: 92%).
- Lands inside PHX's trouble window: 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
Moderate track record · 118 flights
Find Alaska 515 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Alaska Airlines85%
582 flights · 86% on time as flown · 1.2% cancel
- Frontier Airlines78%
50 flights · 70% on time as flown · 0.8% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM83%
125 flights · avg delay 9 min
- 9 AM to noon92%
189 flights · avg delay 8 min
- Noon to 3 PM90%
121 flights · avg delay 9 min
- 3 to 6 PM78%
169 flights · avg delay 16 min
Best day: Thursday (88%). Worst: Monday (83%).
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Late-arriving aircraft50%
- Air traffic control and airport volume27%
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)20%
- Severe weather3%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
PAE to PHX questions
- What time of day is best to fly PAE to PHX?
- 9 AM to noon: 92% of flights arrived on time, against 78% for departures 3 to 6 PM.
- Which airline is most on time from PAE to PHX?
- Alaska, with a season-adjusted 85% chance of operating and arriving on time over 582 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on PAE to PHX?
- November (76% on time); the best was October (93%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from PAE
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops