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Route on-time record

ORD to RDU: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Chicago (Chicago O'Hare International Airport) to Raleigh/Durham (Raleigh-Durham International Airport). 3,535 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 73% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.9% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Envoy 3936 at 7:00 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

ORD → RDU

Chicago to Raleigh/Durham: 3,535 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

73%

Cancelled

1.9%

avg delay 22 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

85% on time vs 62% 3 to 6 PM

Most reliable airline

United

76% chance on time

Check ORD to RDU fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $175 (United 786 on 2026-11-03). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Envoy 3936 · sold as American Eagle

    7:00 AM → 10:07 AM2h 07m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-01.

    84%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    88%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    5 min
    • Arrived on time 88% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 85% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 62%).
    • Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (8 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 8 flights

    Find 7:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · United 2112

    6:45 AM → 9:45 AM2h 00m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    84%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    86%
    Cancelled
    0.6%
    Avg arrival delay
    11 min
    • Arrived on time 86% of the time (155 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 85% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 62%).
    • Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Moderate track record · 155 flights

    Find United 2112 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Envoy 4216 · sold as American Eagle

    6:50 AM → 10:01 AM2h 11m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    84%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    89%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    4 min
    • Arrived on time 89% of the time (37 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 37 scheduled flights.
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 85% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 62%).
    • Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Limited track record · 37 flights

    Find 6:50 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · Republic 4354 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    8:08 AM → 11:29 AM2h 21m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    84%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    86%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    10 min
    • Arrived on time 86% of the time (160 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 161 scheduled flights.
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 85% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 62%).
    • Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Moderate track record · 160 flights

    Find 8:08 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · Envoy 3809 · sold as American Eagle

    9:46 AM → 12:58 PM2h 12m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    83%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    86%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    8 min
    • Arrived on time 86% of the time (44 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 44 scheduled flights.
    • Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside RDU's trouble window: 57% of its 14 ground stops and delay programs started between 11 AM and 5 PM.

    Limited track record · 44 flights

    Find 9:46 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · United 2653

    10:40 AM → 1:42 PM2h 02m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-03-28.

    82%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    82%
    Cancelled
    0.7%
    Avg arrival delay
    12 min
    • Arrived on time 82% of the time (293 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside RDU's trouble window: 57% of its 14 ground stops and delay programs started between 11 AM and 5 PM.

    Strong track record · 293 flights

    Find United 2653 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · United 1536

    7:10 AM → 10:08 AM1h 58m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-03-28.

    82%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    75%
    Cancelled
    4.8%
    Avg arrival delay
    11 min
    • Arrived on time 75% of the time (20 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 85% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 62%).
    • Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (20 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 20 flights

    Find United 1536 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  8. #8 · United 2091

    2:15 PM → 5:18 PM2h 08m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    80%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    81%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    13 min
    • Arrived on time 81% of the time (102 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 102 scheduled flights.
    • Departs inside ORD's trouble window: 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
    • 56% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Moderate track record · 102 flights

    Find United 2091 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  9. #9 · United 2616

    10:50 AM → 1:58 PM2h 09m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    79%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    81%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    19 min
    • Arrived on time 81% of the time (62 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 62 scheduled flights.
    • Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside RDU's trouble window: 57% of its 14 ground stops and delay programs started between 11 AM and 5 PM.

    Moderate track record · 62 flights

    Find United 2616 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  10. #10 · Republic 4756 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    8:58 AM → 12:19 PM2h 21m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Republic 3670; its record covers all of them.

    79%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    81%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    12 min
    • Arrived on time 81% of the time (64 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 64 scheduled flights.
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 85% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 62%).
    • Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Moderate track record · 64 flights

    Find 8:58 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • United Airlines76%

    1,310 flights · 77% on time as flown · 1.0% cancel

  • Envoy Air (sold as American Eagle)76%

    545 flights · 77% on time as flown · 1.7% cancel

  • Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)70%

    952 flights · 72% on time as flown · 2.5% cancel

  • Frontier Airlines65%

    149 flights · 65% on time as flown · 3.3% cancel

  • American Airlines61%

    563 flights · 62% on time as flown · 2.5% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM85%

    677 flights · avg delay 10 min

  • 9 AM to noon79%

    844 flights · avg delay 14 min

  • Noon to 3 PM72%

    737 flights · avg delay 25 min

  • 3 to 6 PM62%

    269 flights · avg delay 29 min

  • 6 to 9 PM62%

    950 flights · avg delay 33 min

Best day: Tuesday (80%). Worst: Friday (73%).

Smarter routing

Nearby airports that run more on time

  • MDW → RDU 79% chance on time

    Chicago Midway International Airport to Raleigh-Durham International Airport · 1,009 flights a year · 15 mi from your airports · yours: 72%

    Rank flightsFares

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
76
F
80
M
74
A
78
M
78
J
71
J
68
A
73
S
82
O
82
N
84
D
78

What delays this route

  • Late-arriving aircraft47%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)28%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume17%
  • Severe weather8%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

ORD to RDU questions

What time of day is best to fly ORD to RDU?
Before 9 AM: 85% of flights arrived on time, against 62% for departures 3 to 6 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from ORD to RDU?
United, with a season-adjusted 76% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,310 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on ORD to RDU?
July (68% on time); the best was November (84%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from ORD

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops