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Route on-time record

MKE to PHX: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Milwaukee (General Mitchell International Airport) to Phoenix (Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport). 1,489 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 79% arrived within 15 minutes and 0.9% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 3450 at 5:15 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MKE → PHX

Milwaukee to Phoenix: 1,489 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

79%

Cancelled

0.9%

avg delay 17 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

87% on time vs 65% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Southwest

80% chance on time

Check MKE to PHX fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $152 (Southwest 4694 on 2026-11-05). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Southwest 3450

    5:15 AM → 7:05 AM3h 50m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    90%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    91%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    6 min
    • Arrived on time 91% of the time (54 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 54 scheduled flights.
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 65%).
    • Short track record (54 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 54 flights

    Find Southwest 3450 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Southwest 2138

    5:25 AM → 7:35 AM4h 05m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    89%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    91%
    Cancelled
    3.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    10 min
    • Arrived on time 91% of the time (32 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.0% of the time (1 of 33).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 65%).
    • Short track record (32 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 32 flights

    Find Southwest 2138 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · American 2132

    7:16 AM → 9:05 AM3h 49m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as American 3146, 2603; its record covers all of them.

    81%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    81%
    Cancelled
    2.4%
    Avg arrival delay
    22 min
    • Arrived on time 81% of the time (203 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 65%).

    Strong track record · 203 flights

    Find American 2132 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · Southwest 1011

    12:45 PM → 2:40 PM3h 55m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    81%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    82%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    10 min
    • Arrived on time 82% of the time (33 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 33 scheduled flights.
    • Lands inside PHX's trouble window: 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
    • Short track record (33 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 33 flights

    Find Southwest 1011 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · Southwest 3451

    10:30 AM → 12:20 PM3h 45m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    81%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    78%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    13 min
    • Arrived on time 78% of the time (55 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 55 scheduled flights.
    • Short track record (55 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 55 flights

    Find Southwest 3451 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · Southwest 1156

    2:00 PM → 3:55 PM3h 55m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-05.

    78%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    78%
    Cancelled
    10.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    11 min
    • Arrived on time 78% of the time (9 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Lands inside PHX's trouble window: 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
    • Short track record (9 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 9 flights

    Find Southwest 1156 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · Southwest 543

    8:10 PM → 10:05 PM3h 55m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    70%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    63%
    Cancelled
    3.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    20 min
    • Arrived on time 63% of the time (32 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.0% of the time (1 of 33).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 65% on time; Before 9 AM: 87%).
    • 80% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Limited track record · 32 flights

    Find Southwest 543 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  8. #8 · American 2659

    5:46 PM → 7:33 PM3h 47m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-18. Same departure also flew as American 1187; its record covers all of them.

    69%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    66%
    Cancelled
    1.9%
    Avg arrival delay
    35 min
    • Arrived on time 66% of the time (53 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Lands inside PHX's trouble window: 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
    • Short track record (53 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 53 flights

    Find American 2659 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  9. #9 · Southwest 3452

    7:05 PM → 8:50 PM3h 45m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    67%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    58%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    26 min
    • Arrived on time 58% of the time (55 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 55 scheduled flights.
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 65% on time; Before 9 AM: 87%).
    • 72% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Limited track record · 55 flights

    Find Southwest 3452 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Southwest Airlines80%

    996 flights · 80% on time as flown · 0.5% cancel

  • American Airlines77%

    489 flights · 78% on time as flown · 1.6% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM87%

    588 flights · avg delay 15 min

  • 9 AM to noon84%

    55 flights · avg delay 11 min

  • Noon to 3 PM80%

    348 flights · avg delay 14 min

  • 3 to 6 PM73%

    263 flights · avg delay 22 min

  • 6 to 9 PM65%

    235 flights · avg delay 24 min

Best day: Tuesday (84%). Worst: Thursday (80%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
77
F
83
M
79
A
83
M
80
J
82
J
83
A
82
S
84
O
88
N
84
D
80

What delays this route

  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)51%
  • Late-arriving aircraft34%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume13%
  • Severe weather2%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MKE to PHX questions

What time of day is best to fly MKE to PHX?
Before 9 AM: 87% of flights arrived on time, against 65% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MKE to PHX?
Southwest, with a season-adjusted 80% chance of operating and arriving on time over 996 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MKE to PHX?
January (77% on time); the best was October (88%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from MKE

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops