Route on-time record
MKE to DCA: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Milwaukee (General Mitchell International Airport) to Washington (Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport). 1,349 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 75% arrived within 15 minutes and 3.7% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 3438 at 8:10 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
MKE → DCA
Milwaukee to Washington: 1,349 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
75%
Cancelled
3.7%
avg delay 26 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
86% on time vs 44% 6 to 9 PM
Most reliable airline
Southwest
73% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $268 (American 5646 on 2026-10-24). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Southwest 3438
8:10 AM → 11:00 AM1h 50m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 2544; its record covers all of them.
89%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 95%
- Cancelled
- 2.2%
- Avg arrival delay
- 3 min
- Arrived on time 95% of the time (44 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 86% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 44%).
- Short track record (44 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 44 flights
Find Southwest 3438 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Southwest 2686
9:10 AM → 12:00 PM1h 50m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-27.
83%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 94%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 3 min
- Arrived on time 94% of the time (16 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Short track record (16 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 16 flights
Find Southwest 2686 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · PSA 5646 · sold as American Eagle
6:00 AM → 9:10 AM2h 10m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
78%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 84%
- Cancelled
- 7.2%
- Avg arrival delay
- 27 min
- Arrived on time 84% of the time (309 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 7.2% of the time (24 of 334).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 86% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 44%).
Strong track record · 309 flights
Find 6:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Southwest 1404
12:30 PM → 3:20 PM1h 50m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-30.
73%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 100%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 0 min
- Arrived on time 100% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
- Short track record (8 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 8 flights
Find Southwest 1404 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · PSA 5286 · sold as American Eagle
12:49 PM → 3:59 PM2h 10m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
67%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 78%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 33 min
- Arrived on time 78% of the time (9 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
- 93% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (9 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 9 flights
Find 12:49 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#6 · PSA 5338 · sold as American Eagle
12:07 PM → 3:19 PM2h 12m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20. Same departure also flew as PSA 5637; its record covers all of them.
61%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 63%
- Cancelled
- 5.2%
- Avg arrival delay
- 48 min
- Arrived on time 63% of the time (251 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 5.2% of the time (14 of 269).
- Lands inside DCA's trouble window: 63% of its 194 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
Strong track record · 251 flights
Find 12:07 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#7 · Southwest 3439
6:00 PM → 8:50 PM1h 50m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 2315; its record covers all of them.
50%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 44%
- Cancelled
- 1.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 30 min
- Arrived on time 44% of the time (73 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 44% on time; Before 9 AM: 86%).
Moderate track record · 73 flights
Find Southwest 3439 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Southwest Airlines73%
683 flights · 75% on time as flown · 2.1% cancel
- PSA Airlines (sold as American Eagle)71%
659 flights · 75% on time as flown · 5.4% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM86%
558 flights · avg delay 18 min
- 9 AM to noon86%
145 flights · avg delay 12 min
- Noon to 3 PM66%
332 flights · avg delay 42 min
- 3 to 6 PM61%
251 flights · avg delay 26 min
- 6 to 9 PM44%
63 flights · avg delay 30 min
Best day: Saturday (84%). Worst: Sunday (77%).
Smarter routing
Nearby airports that run more on time
MKE → BWI 83% chance on time
General Mitchell International Airport to Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport · 836 flights a year · 30 mi from your airports · yours: 72%
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)40%
- Late-arriving aircraft35%
- Air traffic control and airport volume23%
- Severe weather2%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
MKE to DCA questions
- What time of day is best to fly MKE to DCA?
- Before 9 AM: 86% of flights arrived on time, against 44% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
- Which airline is most on time from MKE to DCA?
- Southwest, with a season-adjusted 73% chance of operating and arriving on time over 683 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on MKE to DCA?
- December (74% on time); the best was October (85%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from MKE
- DCA to MKE (return)
- MKE to ORD 67%
- MKE to DEN 78%
- MKE to ATL 89%
- MKE to DTW 81%
- MKE to PHX 79%
- MKE to MSP 82%
- MKE to MCO 76%
- MKE to LAS 82%
- MKE to DFW 74%
- MKE to BNA 82%
- MKE to CLT 79%
- MKE to BWI 85%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops