ATIS Alerts Smart Flight Search
Find the flight least likely to be delayed
BetaWe rank real flight numbers by how often they flew and arrived on time over the last 12 months, adjusted for your travel month and departure time, then check nearby airports and calmer connections. US airlines and airports.
TPA → ORD
Tampa to Chicago: 3,257 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
72%
Cancelled
1.5%
avg delay 25 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
88% on time vs 52% 6 to 9 PM
Most reliable airline
United
74% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $155 (United 1010 on 2026-11-06). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Best trips
10 nonstop, 30 with 1 connection. Best overall weighs the chance you arrive on time as booked, connection odds, travel time and separate tickets.
Best overall#1 · Nonstop · 3h 13m
6:38 AM → 8:51 AM
88%
arrive on time
89% on time · 0.7% cancel6:38 AM TPA → 8:51 AM ORD3h 13m
American 354
Airbus A321 · 8–17 yrs oldFind American 354 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Nonstop · 3h 11m
6:14 AM → 8:25 AM
87%
arrive on time
89% on time · 1.5% cancel6:14 AM TPA → 8:25 AM ORD3h 11m
American 1388
Boeing 737-800 · 9–26 yrs oldFind American 1388 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Nonstop · 3h 06m
7:15 AM → 9:21 AM
84%
arrive on time
85% on time · 0.6% cancel7:15 AM TPA → 9:21 AM ORD3h 06m
United 2189 · also flew as 1778
Boeing 737 MAX 9 · 0–12 yrs oldFind United 2189 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Nonstop · 3h 05m
12:20 PM → 2:25 PM
81%
arrive on time
82% on time · 0.8% cancel12:20 PM TPA → 2:25 PM ORD3h 05m
United 2223 · also flew as 841, 463
Boeing 737-900ER or 737 MAX 9 · 0–18 yrs oldFind United 2223 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · Nonstop · 3h 06m
1:35 PM → 3:41 PM
80%
arrive on time
81% on time · 1.6% cancel1:35 PM TPA → 3:41 PM ORD3h 06m
American 2834
Boeing 737-800 · 14–26 yrs oldFind American 2834 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#6 · Nonstop · 3h 07m
11:45 AM → 1:52 PM
74%
arrive on time
75% on time · 1.3% cancel11:45 AM TPA → 1:52 PM ORD3h 07m
American 1848
Boeing 737-800 · 10–26 yrs oldFind American 1848 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#7 · 1 connection · 5h 45m · one ticket (American)
7:15 AM → 12:00 PM
91%
connections made
84%
arrive on time
94% on time · 1.3% cancel7:15 AM TPA → 9:11 AM CLT1h 56m
American 2538
Airbus A321 · 9–25 yrs oldConnect in CLT · 1h 23m · 95% chance to make it · same ticket: the airline rebooks you if you miss it92% on time · 2.4% cancel10:34 AM CLT → 12:00 PM ORD2h 26m
Republic 3509 · sold as American Eagle · also flew as 3702
Embraer E175 · 2–11 yrs oldFind this American trip Look for American 2538 + Republic 3509 on Aviasales#8 · 1 connection · 7h 00m · one ticket (American)
6:00 AM → 12:00 PM
95%
connections made
87%
arrive on time
94% on time · 1.9% cancel6:00 AM TPA → 7:55 AM CLT1h 55m
American 1225 · also flew as 2020
Airbus A321 · 9–25 yrs oldConnect in CLT · 2h 39m · 99% chance to make it · same ticket: the airline rebooks you if you miss it92% on time · 2.4% cancel10:34 AM CLT → 12:00 PM ORD2h 26m
Republic 3509 · sold as American Eagle · also flew as 3702
Embraer E175 · 2–11 yrs oldFind this American trip Look for American 1225 + Republic 3509 on Aviasales#9 · Nonstop · 3h 04m
2:25 PM → 4:29 PM
72%
arrive on time
72% on time · 0.4% cancel2:25 PM TPA → 4:29 PM ORD3h 04m
United 2179 · also flew as 1369
Boeing 737 MAX 9 or 737-900ER · 0–25 yrs oldFind United 2179 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#10 · 1 connection · 5h 47m · one ticket (American)
6:00 AM → 10:47 AM
93%
connections made
80%
arrive on time
94% on time · 1.9% cancel6:00 AM TPA → 7:55 AM CLT1h 55m
American 1225 · also flew as 2020
Airbus A321 · 9–25 yrs oldConnect in CLT · 1h 35m · 98% chance to make it · same ticket: the airline rebooks you if you miss it86% on time · 2.7% cancel9:30 AM CLT → 10:47 AM ORD2h 17m
American 1038 · also flew as 2174
Airbus A321 or Boeing 737-800 · 9–25 yrs oldFind this American trip Look for American 1225 + American 1038 on Aviasales
Aircraft and ages come from the planes each flight number actually flew in the last 3 months of data (FAA registry build years); airlines can swap planes.
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- United Airlines74%
1,401 flights · 75% on time as flown · 0.6% cancel
- American Airlines71%
1,141 flights · 73% on time as flown · 1.7% cancel
- Southwest Airlines69%
211 flights · 68% on time as flown · 1.2% cancel
- Spirit Airlines66%
311 flights · 67% on time as flown · 2.7% cancel
- Frontier Airlines61%
190 flights · 59% on time as flown · 3.6% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM88%
833 flights · avg delay 11 min
- 9 AM to noon78%
382 flights · avg delay 19 min
- Noon to 3 PM77%
972 flights · avg delay 19 min
- 3 to 6 PM53%
557 flights · avg delay 36 min
- 6 to 9 PM52%
467 flights · avg delay 48 min
Best day: Tuesday (82%). Worst: Sunday (74%).
Smarter routing
Nearby airports that run more on time
TPA → MDW 74% chance on time
Tampa International Airport to Chicago Midway International Airport · 1,630 flights a year · 15 mi from your airports · yours: 71%
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure