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Route on-time record

PHX to MDW: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Phoenix (Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport) to Chicago (Chicago Midway International Airport). 2,815 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 74% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.1% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 3821 at 6:40 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

PHX → MDW

Phoenix to Chicago: 2,815 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

74%

Cancelled

1.1%

avg delay 14 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

89% on time vs 60% 3 to 6 PM

Most reliable airline

Southwest

74% chance on time

Check PHX to MDW fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $135 (Southwest 1428 on 2026-11-06). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Southwest 3821

    6:40 AM → 11:55 AM3h 15m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    90%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    95%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    3 min
    • Arrived on time 95% of the time (55 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 55 scheduled flights.
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 89% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 60%).
    • Departs outside PHX's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Limited track record · 55 flights

    Find Southwest 3821 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Southwest 556

    5:05 AM → 10:20 AM3h 15m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    88%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    92%
    Cancelled
    13.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    6 min
    • Arrived on time 92% of the time (13 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 89% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 60%).
    • Departs outside PHX's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.

    Limited track record · 13 flights

    Find Southwest 556 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Southwest 2052

    8:20 AM → 1:45 PM3h 25m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29.

    87%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    96%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    1 min
    • Arrived on time 96% of the time (23 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 89% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 60%).
    • Departs outside PHX's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (23 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 23 flights

    Find Southwest 2052 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · Southwest 2400

    8:00 AM → 1:25 PM3h 20m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-05.

    84%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    88%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    5 min
    • Arrived on time 88% of the time (17 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 89% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 60%).
    • Departs outside PHX's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (17 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 17 flights

    Find Southwest 2400 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · Southwest 2865

    7:15 AM → 12:30 PM3h 15m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    84%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    92%
    Cancelled
    13.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    5 min
    • Arrived on time 92% of the time (13 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 89% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 60%).
    • Departs outside PHX's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.

    Limited track record · 13 flights

    Find Southwest 2865 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · Southwest 1521

    7:30 AM → 12:45 PM3h 15m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29.

    83%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    83%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    8 min
    • Arrived on time 83% of the time (23 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 89% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 60%).
    • Departs outside PHX's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.

    Limited track record · 23 flights

    Find Southwest 1521 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · Southwest 4536

    7:00 AM → 12:15 PM3h 15m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-01.

    82%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    75%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    23 min
    • Arrived on time 75% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 89% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 60%).
    • Departs outside PHX's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.

    Limited track record · 8 flights

    Find Southwest 4536 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  8. #8 · Southwest 2539

    6:00 AM → 11:10 AM3h 10m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    80%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    70%
    Cancelled
    6.1%
    Avg arrival delay
    13 min
    • Arrived on time 70% of the time (30 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 6.1% of the time (2 of 33).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 89% on time; 3 to 6 PM: 60%).
    • Departs outside PHX's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Limited track record · 30 flights

    Find Southwest 2539 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  9. #9 · Southwest 1713

    10:35 AM → 3:50 PM3h 15m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-01.

    79%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    75%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    16 min
    • Arrived on time 75% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside PHX's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (8 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 8 flights

    Find Southwest 1713 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  10. #10 · Southwest 3827

    11:55 PM → 5:00 AM3h 05m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 4233; its record covers all of them.

    79%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    77%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    9 min
    • Arrived on time 77% of the time (78 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 78 scheduled flights.
    • Departs outside PHX's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 43% of its 46 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Moderate track record · 78 flights

    Find Southwest 3827 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Southwest Airlines74%

    2,679 flights · 74% on time as flown · 1.1% cancel

  • Frontier Airlines68%

    136 flights · 66% on time as flown · 1.3% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM89%

    866 flights · avg delay 5 min

  • 9 AM to noon78%

    408 flights · avg delay 12 min

  • Noon to 3 PM69%

    499 flights · avg delay 16 min

  • 3 to 6 PM60%

    544 flights · avg delay 24 min

  • 6 to 9 PM62%

    416 flights · avg delay 22 min

Best day: Saturday (82%). Worst: Thursday (76%).

Smarter routing

Nearby airports that run more on time

  • PHX → ORD 76% chance on time

    Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport to Chicago O'Hare International Airport · 5,633 flights a year · 15 mi from your airports · yours: 73%

    Rank flightsFares

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
82
F
83
M
73
A
79
M
72
J
74
J
74
A
76
S
87
O
81
N
84
D
79

What delays this route

  • Late-arriving aircraft42%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)37%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume15%
  • Severe weather5%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

PHX to MDW questions

What time of day is best to fly PHX to MDW?
Before 9 AM: 89% of flights arrived on time, against 60% for departures 3 to 6 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from PHX to MDW?
Southwest, with a season-adjusted 74% chance of operating and arriving on time over 2,679 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on PHX to MDW?
May (72% on time); the best was September (87%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from PHX

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops