Route on-time record

ORD to LEX: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Chicago (Chicago O'Hare International Airport) to Lexington (Blue Grass Airport). 1,785 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 69% arrived within 15 minutes and 2.3% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Envoy 4268 at 8:00 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

ORD → LEX

Chicago to Lexington: 1,785 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

69%

Cancelled

2.3%

avg delay 28 min

Best time to leave

9 AM to noon

81% on time vs 56% 3 to 6 PM

Most reliable airline

Envoy

71% chance on time

Check ORD to LEX fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $153 (United 5995 on 2026-10-19). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

#1 · Envoy 4268 · sold as American Eagle
8:00 AM → 10:31 AM1h 31m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
75%
chance on time
On time (history)
76%
Cancelled
0.9%
Avg arrival delay
26 min
- Arrived on time 76% of the time (115 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
- 61% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Moderate track record · 115 flights
Find 8:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#2 · Envoy 3689 · sold as American Eagle
7:00 AM → 9:24 AM1h 24m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
74%
chance on time
On time (history)
76%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
11 min
- Arrived on time 76% of the time (54 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 54 scheduled flights.
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (54 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 54 flights
Find 7:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#3 · SkyWest 6244 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
8:06 AM → 10:42 AM1h 36m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
72%
chance on time
On time (history)
82%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
23 min
- Arrived on time 82% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (11 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 11 flights
Find 8:06 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#4 · SkyWest 4958 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
9:06 PM → 11:38 PM1h 32m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
70%
chance on time
On time (history)
73%
Cancelled
6.8%
Avg arrival delay
45 min
- Arrived on time 73% of the time (41 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 6.8% of the time (3 of 44).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (41 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 41 flights
Find 9:06 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#5 · SkyWest 5376 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
2:25 PM → 5:02 PM1h 37m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-29.
70%
chance on time
On time (history)
72%
Cancelled
2.4%
Avg arrival delay
21 min
- Arrived on time 72% of the time (206 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside ORD's trouble window: 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
Strong track record · 206 flights
Find 2:25 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#6 · PSA 5573 · sold as American Eagle
2:50 PM → 5:20 PM1h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-06.
70%
chance on time
On time (history)
71%
Cancelled
0.0%
Avg arrival delay
20 min
- Arrived on time 71% of the time (21 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside ORD's trouble window: 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
- 59% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (21 flights), so its score leans on the route's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 21 flights
Find 2:50 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#7 · SkyWest 6298 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
1:23 PM → 3:57 PM1h 34m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
69%
chance on time
On time (history)
70%
Cancelled
2.3%
Avg arrival delay
28 min
- Arrived on time 70% of the time (43 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (43 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 43 flights
Find 1:23 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#8 · SkyWest 4654 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
9:30 PM → 11:59 PM1h 29m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-26.
68%
chance on time
On time (history)
64%
Cancelled
15.4%
Avg arrival delay
22 min
- Arrived on time 64% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (11 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 11 flights
Find 9:30 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#9 · Envoy 3782 · sold as American Eagle
8:49 PM → 11:16 PM1h 27m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
67%
chance on time
On time (history)
72%
Cancelled
3.8%
Avg arrival delay
35 min
- Arrived on time 72% of the time (25 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside ORD's trouble window (2 PM to 8 PM, when 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (25 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 25 flights
Find 8:49 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
#10 · SkyWest 5624 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
5:45 PM → 8:14 PM1h 29m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
65%
chance on time
On time (history)
66%
Cancelled
2.2%
Avg arrival delay
25 min
- Arrived on time 66% of the time (227 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 56% on time; 9 AM to noon: 81%).
- Departs inside ORD's trouble window: 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
Strong track record · 227 flights
Find 5:45 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

Envoy Air (sold as American Eagle)71%
299 flights · 73% on time as flown · 1.7% cancel
SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)67%
1,463 flights · 68% on time as flown · 2.5% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

Before 9 AM74%
275 flights · avg delay 17 min
9 AM to noon81%
192 flights · avg delay 15 min
Noon to 3 PM73%
406 flights · avg delay 21 min
3 to 6 PM56%
336 flights · avg delay 42 min
6 to 9 PM64%
410 flights · avg delay 36 min
After 9 PM75%
166 flights · avg delay 35 min

Best day: Tuesday (78%). Worst: Sunday (71%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

What delays this route

Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)38%
Late-arriving aircraft25%
Severe weather22%
Air traffic control and airport volume15%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

ORD to LEX questions

What time of day is best to fly ORD to LEX?: 9 AM to noon: 81% of flights arrived on time, against 56% for departures 3 to 6 PM.
Which airline is most on time from ORD to LEX?: Envoy, with a season-adjusted 71% chance of operating and arriving on time over 299 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on ORD to LEX?: July (61% on time); the best was November (84%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?: No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

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