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ATIS Alerts Smart Flight Search

Find the flight least likely to be delayed

Beta

We rank real flight numbers by how often they flew and arrived on time over the last 12 months, adjusted for your travel month and departure time, then check nearby airports and calmer connections. US airlines and airports.

RDU → JFK

Raleigh/Durham to New York: 2,379 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

75%

Cancelled

4.4%

avg delay 18 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

89% on time vs 53% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Republic

73% chance on time

Check RDU to JFK fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $101 (American 4765 on 2026-10-20). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Republic 4805 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    6:00 AM → 7:46 AM1h 46m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Republic 4510; its record covers all of them.

    89%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    92%
    Cancelled
    2.5%
    Avg arrival delay
    5 min
    • Arrived on time 92% of the time (348 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 89% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 53%).
    • Departs outside RDU's trouble window (11 AM to 5 PM, when 57% of its 14 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 348 flights

    Find 6:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Republic 4756 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    11:01 AM → 12:29 PM1h 48m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20. Same departure also flew as Republic 4788; its record covers all of them.

    83%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    89%
    Cancelled
    4.7%
    Avg arrival delay
    9 min
    • Arrived on time 89% of the time (164 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 4.7% of the time (8 of 172).
    • Departs inside RDU's trouble window: 57% of its 14 ground stops and delay programs started between 11 AM and 5 PM.

    Moderate track record · 164 flights

    Find 11:01 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · JetBlue 486

    6:18 AM → 8:01 AM1h 43m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-21. Same departure also flew as JetBlue 386; its record covers all of them.

    79%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    82%
    Cancelled
    3.8%
    Avg arrival delay
    11 min
    • Arrived on time 82% of the time (150 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.8% of the time (6 of 157).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 89% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 53%).
    • Departs outside RDU's trouble window (11 AM to 5 PM, when 57% of its 14 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Moderate track record · 150 flights

    Find JetBlue 486 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · JetBlue 2786

    12:20 PM → 2:12 PM1h 52m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    78%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    83%
    Cancelled
    0.6%
    Avg arrival delay
    11 min
    • Arrived on time 83% of the time (157 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside RDU's trouble window: 57% of its 14 ground stops and delay programs started between 11 AM and 5 PM.
    • Lands inside JFK's trouble window: 66% of its 167 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • 59% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Moderate track record · 157 flights

    Find JetBlue 2786 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · Republic 4809 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    10:35 AM → 12:19 PM1h 44m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    78%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    75%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    15 min
    • Arrived on time 75% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside RDU's trouble window (11 AM to 5 PM, when 57% of its 14 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • 89% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
    • Short track record (8 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 8 flights

    Find 10:35 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · JetBlue 286

    7:00 AM → 9:45 AM1h 45m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    77%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    80%
    Cancelled
    2.8%
    Avg arrival delay
    13 min
    • Arrived on time 80% of the time (206 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 89% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 53%).
    • Departs outside RDU's trouble window (11 AM to 5 PM, when 57% of its 14 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 206 flights

    Find JetBlue 286 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · Republic 4491 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    2:32 PM → 4:29 PM1h 57m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    77%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    82%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    19 min
    • Arrived on time 82% of the time (44 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 44 scheduled flights.
    • Departs inside RDU's trouble window: 57% of its 14 ground stops and delay programs started between 11 AM and 5 PM.
    • Lands inside JFK's trouble window: 66% of its 167 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Limited track record · 44 flights

    Find 2:32 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  8. #8 · Republic 4509 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    1:41 PM → 3:30 PM1h 49m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    73%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    80%
    Cancelled
    3.8%
    Avg arrival delay
    13 min
    • Arrived on time 80% of the time (25 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside RDU's trouble window: 57% of its 14 ground stops and delay programs started between 11 AM and 5 PM.
    • Lands inside JFK's trouble window: 66% of its 167 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • 50% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Limited track record · 25 flights

    Find 1:41 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  9. #9 · Republic 4765 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    11:59 AM → 1:59 PM2h 00m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    70%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    70%
    Cancelled
    3.1%
    Avg arrival delay
    20 min
    • Arrived on time 70% of the time (281 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.1% of the time (9 of 290).
    • Departs inside RDU's trouble window: 57% of its 14 ground stops and delay programs started between 11 AM and 5 PM.
    • Lands inside JFK's trouble window: 66% of its 167 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Strong track record · 281 flights

    Find 11:59 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  10. #10 · JetBlue 2486

    2:25 PM → 4:09 PM1h 40m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    65%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    68%
    Cancelled
    5.6%
    Avg arrival delay
    27 min
    • Arrived on time 68% of the time (185 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 5.6% of the time (11 of 196).
    • Departs inside RDU's trouble window: 57% of its 14 ground stops and delay programs started between 11 AM and 5 PM.
    • Lands inside JFK's trouble window: 66% of its 167 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Moderate track record · 185 flights

    Find JetBlue 2486 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)73%

    1,463 flights · 76% on time as flown · 4.4% cancel

  • JetBlue71%

    916 flights · 74% on time as flown · 4.3% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM89%

    662 flights · avg delay 7 min

  • 9 AM to noon84%

    474 flights · avg delay 11 min

  • Noon to 3 PM74%

    599 flights · avg delay 19 min

  • 3 to 6 PM58%

    297 flights · avg delay 33 min

  • 6 to 9 PM53%

    346 flights · avg delay 35 min

Best day: Wednesday (82%). Worst: Friday (76%).

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure