ATIS Alerts Smart Flight Search
Find the flight least likely to be delayed
BetaWe rank real flight numbers by how often they flew and arrived on time over the last 12 months, adjusted for your travel month and departure time, then check nearby airports and calmer connections. US airlines and airports.
PVD → MDW
Providence/Warwick to Chicago: 768 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
85%
Cancelled
1.6%
avg delay 11 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
93% on time vs 68% 6 to 9 PM
Most reliable airline
Southwest
83% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $288 (Southwest 3905 on 2026-10-27). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Southwest 2654
6:50 AM → 8:20 AM2h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 2549; its record covers all of them.
91%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 93%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 2 min
- Arrived on time 93% of the time (61 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 61 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 93% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 68%).
- Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
Moderate track record · 61 flights
Find Southwest 2654 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Southwest 1401
1:00 PM → 2:35 PM2h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29.
85%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 85%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 10 min
- Arrived on time 85% of the time (39 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 39 scheduled flights.
- Short track record (39 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 39 flights
Find Southwest 1401 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Southwest 4306
12:40 PM → 2:25 PM2h 45m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
84%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 87%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 19 min
- Arrived on time 87% of the time (23 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- 94% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (23 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 23 flights
Find Southwest 4306 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Southwest 3376
7:30 AM → 9:05 AM2h 35m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
82%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 79%
- Cancelled
- 4.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 10 min
- Arrived on time 79% of the time (24 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 93% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 68%).
- Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- Short track record (24 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 24 flights
Find Southwest 3376 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · Southwest 4307
6:40 PM → 8:20 PM2h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
77%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 77%
- Cancelled
- 6.1%
- Avg arrival delay
- 20 min
- Arrived on time 77% of the time (31 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 6.1% of the time (2 of 33).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 68% on time; Before 9 AM: 93%).
- Short track record (31 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 31 flights
Find Southwest 4307 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#6 · Southwest 3974
7:05 PM → 8:35 PM2h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29.
71%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 68%
- Cancelled
- 2.6%
- Avg arrival delay
- 13 min
- Arrived on time 68% of the time (38 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 68% on time; Before 9 AM: 93%).
- 55% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (38 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 38 flights
Find Southwest 3974 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Southwest Airlines83%
768 flights · 85% on time as flown · 1.6% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM93%
354 flights · avg delay 4 min
- 9 AM to noon92%
37 flights · avg delay 6 min
- Noon to 3 PM86%
132 flights · avg delay 11 min
- 3 to 6 PM80%
58 flights · avg delay 11 min
- 6 to 9 PM68%
187 flights · avg delay 26 min
Best day: Tuesday (88%). Worst: Sunday (78%).
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure