ATIS Alerts Smart Flight Search
Find the flight least likely to be delayed
BetaWe rank real flight numbers by how often they flew and arrived on time over the last 12 months, adjusted for your travel month and departure time, then check nearby airports and calmer connections. US airlines and airports.
MSP → IAD
Minneapolis to Dulles: 892 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
81%
Cancelled
1.0%
avg delay 14 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
85% on time vs 79% noon to 3 PM
Most reliable airline
Republic
83% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $112 (SY 667 on 2026-10-25). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · SkyWest 3699 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
7:49 AM → 11:18 AM2h 29m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
87%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 92%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 8 min
- Arrived on time 92% of the time (49 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 49 scheduled flights.
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 85% on time; Noon to 3 PM: 79%).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Limited track record · 49 flights
Find 7:49 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Republic 3701 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
12:05 PM → 3:35 PM2h 30m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-03-28.
85%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 85%
- Cancelled
- 3.6%
- Avg arrival delay
- 9 min
- Arrived on time 85% of the time (27 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (Noon to 3 PM: 79% on time; Before 9 AM: 85%).
- Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Lands inside IAD's trouble window: 75% of its 63 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
Limited track record · 27 flights
Find 12:05 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · United 1951
12:29 PM → 3:56 PM2h 27m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
84%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 91%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 2 min
- Arrived on time 91% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (Noon to 3 PM: 79% on time; Before 9 AM: 85%).
- Departs inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Lands inside IAD's trouble window: 75% of its 63 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
Limited track record · 11 flights
Find United 1951 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · SkyWest 3783 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
10:05 AM → 1:32 PM2h 34m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
80%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 81%
- Cancelled
- 0.9%
- Avg arrival delay
- 11 min
- Arrived on time 81% of the time (314 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Lands inside IAD's trouble window: 75% of its 63 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
Strong track record · 314 flights
Find 10:05 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · SkyWest 4129 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska
8:10 PM → 11:41 PM2h 31m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
77%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 78%
- Cancelled
- 3.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 24 min
- Arrived on time 78% of the time (164 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MSP's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started).
Moderate track record · 164 flights
Find 8:10 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)83%
35 flights · 88% on time as flown · 1.4% cancel
- SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)80%
816 flights · 81% on time as flown · 1.0% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM85%
206 flights · avg delay 9 min
- 9 AM to noon82%
139 flights · avg delay 12 min
- Noon to 3 PM79%
209 flights · avg delay 13 min
- 6 to 9 PM79%
320 flights · avg delay 18 min
Best day: Saturday (86%). Worst: Tuesday (81%).
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure