ATIS Alerts Smart Flight Search
Find the flight least likely to be delayed
BetaWe rank real flight numbers by how often they flew and arrived on time over the last 12 months, adjusted for your travel month and departure time, then check nearby airports and calmer connections. US airlines and airports.
MDW → TUL
Chicago to Tulsa: 430 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
78%
Cancelled
1.2%
avg delay 17 min
Best time to leave
Noon to 3 PM
90% on time vs 62% 6 to 9 PM
Most reliable airline
Southwest
77% chance on time
Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Southwest 391
12:55 PM → 2:50 PM1h 55m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
85%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 100%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 1 min
- Arrived on time 100% of the time (16 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Noon to 3 PM: 90% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 62%).
- Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- Short track record (16 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 16 flights
Find Southwest 391 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Southwest 3400
10:20 AM → 12:15 PM1h 55m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29.
81%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 85%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 6 min
- Arrived on time 85% of the time (39 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 39 scheduled flights.
- Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- Short track record (39 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 39 flights
Find Southwest 3400 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Southwest 4014
10:00 AM → 12:00 PM2h 00m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
77%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 73%
- Cancelled
- 4.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 22 min
- Arrived on time 73% of the time (22 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- Short track record (22 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 22 flights
Find Southwest 4014 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Southwest 3402
9:50 PM → 11:45 PM1h 55m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
72%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 74%
- Cancelled
- 1.9%
- Avg arrival delay
- 18 min
- Arrived on time 74% of the time (53 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- 60% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (53 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 53 flights
Find Southwest 3402 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · Southwest 4016
9:35 PM → 11:35 PM2h 00m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
69%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 61%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 45 min
- Arrived on time 61% of the time (28 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- 66% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (28 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 28 flights
Find Southwest 4016 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Southwest Airlines77%
430 flights · 78% on time as flown · 1.2% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- 9 AM to noon83%
97 flights · avg delay 9 min
- Noon to 3 PM90%
91 flights · avg delay 7 min
- 3 to 6 PM75%
100 flights · avg delay 20 min
- 6 to 9 PM62%
53 flights · avg delay 27 min
- After 9 PM67%
74 flights · avg delay 30 min
Best day: Wednesday (85%). Worst: Friday (71%).
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure