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ATIS Alerts Smart Flight Search

Find the flight least likely to be delayed

Beta

We rank real flight numbers by how often they flew and arrived on time over the last 12 months, adjusted for your travel month and departure time, then check nearby airports and calmer connections. US airlines and airports.

MDW → RIC

Chicago to Richmond: 411 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

76%

Cancelled

1.0%

avg delay 12 min

Best time to leave

9 AM to noon

87% on time vs 55% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Southwest

75% chance on time

Check MDW to RIC fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $163 (Southwest 4410 on 2026-11-05). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · Southwest 4133

    1:45 PM → 4:35 PM1h 50m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    78%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    88%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    12 min
    • Arrived on time 88% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • 66% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
    • Short track record (8 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 8 flights

    Find Southwest 4133 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Southwest 1649

    12:55 PM → 3:50 PM1h 55m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-30. Same departure also flew as Southwest 1307; its record covers all of them.

    69%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    63%
    Cancelled
    1.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    14 min
    • Arrived on time 63% of the time (79 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
    • 56% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Moderate track record · 79 flights

    Find Southwest 1649 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Southwest Airlines75%

    411 flights · 76% on time as flown · 1.0% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • 9 AM to noon87%

    138 flights · avg delay 5 min

  • Noon to 3 PM77%

    171 flights · avg delay 10 min

  • 3 to 6 PM71%

    35 flights · avg delay 10 min

  • 6 to 9 PM55%

    57 flights · avg delay 29 min

Best day: Friday (81%). Worst: Sunday (73%).

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure