ATIS Alerts Smart Flight Search
Find the flight least likely to be delayed
BetaWe rank real flight numbers by how often they flew and arrived on time over the last 12 months, adjusted for your travel month and departure time, then check nearby airports and calmer connections. US airlines and airports.
MDW → PVD
Chicago to Providence/Warwick: 770 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
77%
Cancelled
1.3%
avg delay 16 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
92% on time vs 65% 6 to 9 PM
Most reliable airline
Southwest
76% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $311 (Southwest 4574 on 2026-10-28). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Southwest 2574
7:40 AM → 10:50 AM2h 10m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 3416; its record covers all of them.
89%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 92%
- Cancelled
- 1.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 5 min
- Arrived on time 92% of the time (78 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 92% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 65%).
- Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
Moderate track record · 78 flights
Find Southwest 2574 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Southwest 2872
1:00 PM → 4:10 PM2h 10m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
76%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 69%
- Cancelled
- 13.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 42 min
- Arrived on time 69% of the time (13 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- 83% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (13 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 13 flights
Find Southwest 2872 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Southwest 2078
12:50 PM → 4:00 PM2h 10m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-29. Same departure also flew as Southwest 757; its record covers all of them.
74%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 73%
- Cancelled
- 1.9%
- Avg arrival delay
- 13 min
- Arrived on time 73% of the time (51 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- 55% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (51 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 51 flights
Find Southwest 2078 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Southwest 771
6:45 PM → 10:00 PM2h 15m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-30.
68%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 65%
- Cancelled
- 2.1%
- Avg arrival delay
- 17 min
- Arrived on time 65% of the time (46 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 65% on time; Before 9 AM: 92%).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (46 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 46 flights
Find Southwest 771 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · Southwest 1593
6:00 PM → 9:10 PM2h 10m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-04.
65%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 31%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 45 min
- Arrived on time 31% of the time (13 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 65% on time; Before 9 AM: 92%).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (13 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 13 flights
Find Southwest 1593 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#6 · Southwest 3508
7:05 PM → 10:15 PM2h 10m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
63%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 38%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 55 min
- Arrived on time 38% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 65% on time; Before 9 AM: 92%).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- 89% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Limited track record · 8 flights
Find Southwest 3508 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#7 · Southwest 4015
7:45 PM → 10:55 PM2h 10m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
62%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 40%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 68 min
- Arrived on time 40% of the time (15 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (6 to 9 PM: 65% on time; Before 9 AM: 92%).
- Departs outside MDW's trouble window (7 AM to 1 PM, when 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started).
- 66% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Limited track record · 15 flights
Find Southwest 4015 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Southwest Airlines76%
770 flights · 77% on time as flown · 1.3% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM92%
79 flights · avg delay 5 min
- 9 AM to noon92%
148 flights · avg delay 7 min
- Noon to 3 PM80%
171 flights · avg delay 13 min
- 3 to 6 PM71%
66 flights · avg delay 15 min
- 6 to 9 PM65%
284 flights · avg delay 25 min
Best day: Monday (78%). Worst: Friday (70%).
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure