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ATIS Alerts Smart Flight Search

Find the flight least likely to be delayed

Beta

We rank real flight numbers by how often they flew and arrived on time over the last 12 months, adjusted for your travel month and departure time, then check nearby airports and calmer connections. US airlines and airports.

IAD → MSP

Dulles to Minneapolis: 893 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

85%

Cancelled

1.0%

avg delay 17 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

91% on time vs 75% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Republic

86% chance on time

Check IAD to MSP fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $309 (United 2604 on 2026-10-20). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · SkyWest 3996 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    6:00 AM → 9:05 AM3h 01m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    89%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    90%
    Cancelled
    2.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    17 min
    • Arrived on time 90% of the time (247 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 91% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 75%).
    • Departs outside IAD's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 75% of its 63 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 247 flights

    Find 6:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Republic 3701 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    9:00 AM → 10:57 AM2h 57m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-03-28.

    87%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    87%
    Cancelled
    4.2%
    Avg arrival delay
    25 min
    • Arrived on time 87% of the time (23 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside IAD's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 75% of its 63 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (23 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 23 flights

    Find 9:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · United 1998

    8:45 AM → 10:28 AM2h 43m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    86%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    91%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    10 min
    • Arrived on time 91% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 91% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 75%).
    • Departs outside IAD's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 75% of its 63 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (11 flights), so its score leans on the route's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 11 flights

    Find United 1998 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · SkyWest 3699 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    11:58 AM → 1:50 PM2h 52m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    84%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    88%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    11 min
    • Arrived on time 88% of the time (49 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 49 scheduled flights.
    • Departs outside IAD's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 75% of its 63 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Limited track record · 49 flights

    Find 11:58 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · SkyWest 3783 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    2:15 PM → 4:13 PM3h 00m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    81%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    82%
    Cancelled
    0.9%
    Avg arrival delay
    17 min
    • Arrived on time 82% of the time (313 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs inside IAD's trouble window: 75% of its 63 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.
    • Lands inside MSP's trouble window: 71% of its 17 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.

    Strong track record · 313 flights

    Find 2:15 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)86%

    35 flights · 88% on time as flown · 1.4% cancel

  • SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)84%

    817 flights · 84% on time as flown · 1.0% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM91%

    355 flights · avg delay 14 min

  • 9 AM to noon82%

    123 flights · avg delay 15 min

  • Noon to 3 PM83%

    234 flights · avg delay 16 min

  • 6 to 9 PM75%

    162 flights · avg delay 24 min

Best day: Sunday (86%). Worst: Friday (81%).

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure