Route on-time record
TUS to MDW: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
Tucson (Tucson International Airport) to Chicago (Chicago Midway International Airport). 344 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 84% arrived within 15 minutes and 0.9% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Southwest 2500 at 5:15 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
TUS → MDW
Tucson to Chicago: 344 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
84%
Cancelled
0.9%
avg delay 9 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
92% on time vs 65% noon to 3 PM
Most reliable airline
Southwest
83% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $285 (Southwest 1882 on 2026-10-27). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Southwest 2500
5:15 AM → 10:25 AM3h 10m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-01.
79%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 63%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 12 min
- Arrived on time 63% of the time (8 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 92% on time; Noon to 3 PM: 65%).
- Lands inside MDW's trouble window: 50% of its 30 ground stops and delay programs started between 7 AM and 1 PM.
- Short track record (8 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 8 flights
Find Southwest 2500 fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Southwest 3082
12:45 PM → 5:55 PM3h 10m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Southwest 2507; its record covers all of them.
68%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 57%
- Cancelled
- 1.4%
- Avg arrival delay
- 19 min
- Arrived on time 57% of the time (72 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (Noon to 3 PM: 65% on time; Before 9 AM: 92%).
Moderate track record · 72 flights
Find Southwest 3082 fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Southwest Airlines83%
344 flights · 84% on time as flown · 0.9% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM92%
204 flights · avg delay 6 min
- 9 AM to noon89%
37 flights · avg delay 5 min
- Noon to 3 PM65%
103 flights · avg delay 18 min
Best day: Thursday (93%). Worst: Sunday (84%).
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)47%
- Late-arriving aircraft31%
- Air traffic control and airport volume19%
- Severe weather3%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
TUS to MDW questions
- What time of day is best to fly TUS to MDW?
- Before 9 AM: 92% of flights arrived on time, against 65% for departures noon to 3 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
- Which airline is most on time from TUS to MDW?
- Southwest, with a season-adjusted 83% chance of operating and arriving on time over 344 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on TUS to MDW?
- May (82% on time); the best was August (98%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from TUS
- MDW to TUS (return)
- TUS to PHX 84%
- TUS to DEN 82%
- TUS to LAX 86%
- TUS to DFW 80%
- TUS to LAS 85%
- TUS to SLC 94%
- TUS to SEA 87%
- TUS to ORD 76%
- TUS to SFO 75%
- TUS to ATL 92%
- TUS to SAN 78%
- TUS to PDX 93%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops