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Route on-time record

MDT to ORD: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Harrisburg (Harrisburg International Airport) to Chicago (Chicago O'Hare International Airport). 2,032 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 75% arrived within 15 minutes and 2.8% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was American 1351 at 5:38 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

MDT → ORD

Harrisburg to Chicago: 2,032 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

75%

Cancelled

2.8%

avg delay 22 min

Best time to leave

Before 9 AM

87% on time vs 59% 6 to 9 PM

Most reliable airline

Republic

79% chance on time

Check MDT to ORD fares

Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $174 (American 2448 on 2026-10-22). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · American 1351

    5:38 AM → 6:47 AM2h 09m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    89%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    100%
    Cancelled
    2.3%
    Avg arrival delay
    1 min
    • Arrived on time 100% of the time (43 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).
    • Short track record (43 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 43 flights

    Find American 1351 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · Republic 4651 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    6:00 AM → 7:22 AM2h 22m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    89%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    100%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    0 min
    • Arrived on time 100% of the time (10 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).
    • Short track record (10 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 10 flights

    Find 6:00 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · United 1044

    6:15 AM → 7:27 AM2h 12m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-29.

    89%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    97%
    Cancelled
    3.2%
    Avg arrival delay
    8 min
    • Arrived on time 97% of the time (30 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.2% of the time (1 of 31).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).
    • Short track record (30 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 30 flights

    Find United 1044 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · Republic 3450 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    8:29 AM → 9:50 AM2h 21m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-29.

    87%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    94%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    4 min
    • Arrived on time 94% of the time (31 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 31 scheduled flights.
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).
    • Short track record (31 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 31 flights

    Find 8:29 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · United 2684

    6:30 AM → 7:32 AM2h 13m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    84%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    86%
    Cancelled
    1.5%
    Avg arrival delay
    11 min
    • Arrived on time 86% of the time (318 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).

    Strong track record · 318 flights

    Find United 2684 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · Republic 4746 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    11:37 AM → 12:57 PM2h 20m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    82%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    82%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    10 min
    • Arrived on time 82% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • 68% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
    • Short track record (11 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 11 flights

    Find 11:37 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  7. #7 · Republic 4732 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    11:53 AM → 1:14 PM2h 21m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    81%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    81%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    9 min
    • Arrived on time 81% of the time (43 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 44 scheduled flights.
    • Short track record (43 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 43 flights

    Find 11:53 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  8. #8 · American 928

    6:00 AM → 7:12 AM2h 12m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    79%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    75%
    Cancelled
    4.8%
    Avg arrival delay
    25 min
    • Arrived on time 75% of the time (20 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's most on-time window (Before 9 AM: 87% on time; 6 to 9 PM: 59%).
    • Short track record (20 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 20 flights

    Find American 928 fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  9. #9 · Envoy 3740 · sold as American Eagle

    4:36 PM → 5:56 PM2h 20m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.

    73%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    79%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    17 min
    • Arrived on time 79% of the time (39 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 39 scheduled flights.
    • Lands inside ORD's trouble window: 44% of its 243 ground stops and delay programs started between 2 PM and 8 PM.
    • 63% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.

    Limited track record · 39 flights

    Find 4:36 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  10. #10 · Envoy 3693 · sold as American Eagle

    12:30 PM → 1:49 PM2h 19m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.

    68%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    58%
    Cancelled
    4.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    87 min
    • Arrived on time 58% of the time (24 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Short track record (24 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 24 flights

    Find 12:30 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)79%

    232 flights · 82% on time as flown · 2.1% cancel

  • United Airlines77%

    540 flights · 79% on time as flown · 2.3% cancel

  • Envoy Air (sold as American Eagle)73%

    797 flights · 75% on time as flown · 2.5% cancel

  • American Airlines72%

    190 flights · 75% on time as flown · 4.2% cancel

  • SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)64%

    273 flights · 62% on time as flown · 3.3% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM87%

    785 flights · avg delay 11 min

  • 9 AM to noon78%

    425 flights · avg delay 21 min

  • Noon to 3 PM69%

    62 flights · avg delay 73 min

  • 3 to 6 PM63%

    478 flights · avg delay 26 min

  • 6 to 9 PM59%

    282 flights · avg delay 40 min

Best day: Saturday (80%). Worst: Sunday (76%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
73
F
78
M
76
A
82
M
80
J
76
J
76
A
85
S
83
O
85
N
81
D
65

What delays this route

  • Late-arriving aircraft36%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume30%
  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)23%
  • Severe weather11%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

MDT to ORD questions

What time of day is best to fly MDT to ORD?
Before 9 AM: 87% of flights arrived on time, against 59% for departures 6 to 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
Which airline is most on time from MDT to ORD?
Republic, with a season-adjusted 79% chance of operating and arriving on time over 232 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on MDT to ORD?
December (65% on time); the best was August (85%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from MDT

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops