Route on-time record
LGA to BUF: most on-time flights and the best time to fly
New York (LaGuardia Airport) to Buffalo (Buffalo Niagara International Airport). 1,899 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 74% arrived within 15 minutes and 6.3% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was Republic 4648 at 9:40 AM.
Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.
LGA → BUF
New York to Buffalo: 1,899 nonstop flights a year
On time (12 months)
74%
Cancelled
6.3%
avg delay 18 min
Best time to leave
Before 9 AM
89% on time vs 66% after 9 PM
Most reliable airline
Republic
69% chance on time
Lowest nonstop fare seen in the next two months: $128 (American 4521 on 2026-10-22). Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.
Most reliable nonstop flights
Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.
#1 · Republic 4648 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
9:40 AM → 11:14 AM1h 34m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20.
77%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 84%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 6 min
- Arrived on time 84% of the time (44 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 44 scheduled flights.
- Departs outside LGA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 54% of its 285 ground stops and delay programs started).
- Short track record (44 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 44 flights
Find 9:40 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#2 · Republic 4570 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
12:00 PM → 1:26 PM1h 26m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
76%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 80%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 4 min
- Arrived on time 80% of the time (10 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside LGA's trouble window: 54% of its 285 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Short track record (10 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 10 flights
Find 12:00 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#3 · Republic 5799 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
3:21 PM → 5:01 PM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31. Same departure also flew as Republic 5782; its record covers all of them.
75%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 83%
- Cancelled
- 5.3%
- Avg arrival delay
- 9 min
- Arrived on time 83% of the time (54 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 5.3% of the time (3 of 57).
- Departs inside LGA's trouble window: 54% of its 285 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- Short track record (54 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 54 flights
Find 3:21 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#4 · Republic 4385 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
3:10 PM → 4:42 PM1h 32m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-20. Same departure also flew as Republic 5792; its record covers all of them.
75%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 80%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 17 min
- Arrived on time 80% of the time (65 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Never cancelled in 65 scheduled flights.
- Departs inside LGA's trouble window: 54% of its 285 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- 70% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Moderate track record · 65 flights
Find 3:10 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#5 · Republic 4738 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
9:29 AM → 10:58 AM1h 29m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
73%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 76%
- Cancelled
- 4.8%
- Avg arrival delay
- 15 min
- Arrived on time 76% of the time (199 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 4.8% of the time (10 of 209).
- Departs outside LGA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 54% of its 285 ground stops and delay programs started).
Moderate track record · 199 flights
Find 9:29 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#6 · Republic 4379 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
9:02 AM → 10:33 AM1h 31m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
70%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 64%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 18 min
- Arrived on time 64% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs outside LGA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 54% of its 285 ground stops and delay programs started).
- 70% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (11 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 11 flights
Find 9:02 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#7 · Republic 4521 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
7:50 PM → 9:23 PM1h 33m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
67%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 75%
- Cancelled
- 18.8%
- Avg arrival delay
- 13 min
- Arrived on time 75% of the time (69 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 18.8% of the time (16 of 85).
- Departs outside LGA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 54% of its 285 ground stops and delay programs started).
- 66% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Moderate track record · 69 flights
Find 7:50 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#8 · Republic 5809 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
9:59 PM → 11:32 PM1h 33m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
66%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 78%
- Cancelled
- 8.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 12 min
- Arrived on time 78% of the time (23 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Leaves in this route's least on-time window (After 9 PM: 66% on time; Before 9 AM: 89%).
- Departs outside LGA's trouble window (noon to 6 PM, when 54% of its 285 ground stops and delay programs started).
- 79% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
Limited track record · 23 flights
Find 9:59 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#9 · Republic 4378 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
4:11 PM → 5:51 PM1h 40m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.
62%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 64%
- Cancelled
- 0.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 29 min
- Arrived on time 64% of the time (11 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Departs inside LGA's trouble window: 54% of its 285 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
- 69% of its delay minutes came from the plane arriving late from an earlier flight.
- Short track record (11 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.
Limited track record · 11 flights
Find 4:11 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales#10 · Republic 4496 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express
1:58 PM → 3:25 PM1h 27m nonstop
Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-06.
61%
chance on time
- On time (history)
- 65%
- Cancelled
- 7.0%
- Avg arrival delay
- 28 min
- Arrived on time 65% of the time (254 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
- Cancelled 7.0% of the time (19 of 273).
- Departs inside LGA's trouble window: 54% of its 285 ground stops and delay programs started between noon and 6 PM.
Strong track record · 254 flights
Find 1:58 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales
Airlines on this route
Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.
- Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)69%
1,899 flights · 74% on time as flown · 6.3% cancel
On time by departure time
All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.
- Before 9 AM89%
123 flights · avg delay 10 min
- 9 AM to noon79%
370 flights · avg delay 12 min
- Noon to 3 PM77%
306 flights · avg delay 16 min
- 3 to 6 PM72%
469 flights · avg delay 21 min
- 6 to 9 PM74%
222 flights · avg delay 15 min
- After 9 PM66%
409 flights · avg delay 27 min
Best day: Saturday (86%). Worst: Sunday (78%).
Smarter routing
Nearby airports that run more on time
EWR → ROC 81% chance on time
Newark Liberty International Airport to Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport · 633 flights a year · 72 mi from your airports · yours: 70%
EWR → BUF 74% chance on time
Newark Liberty International Airport to Buffalo Niagara International Airport · 398 flights a year · 17 mi from your airports · yours: 70%
On time by month
All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.
What delays this route
- Late-arriving aircraft49%
- Air traffic control and airport volume21%
- Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)20%
- Severe weather10%
Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.
Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure
LGA to BUF questions
- What time of day is best to fly LGA to BUF?
- Before 9 AM: 89% of flights arrived on time, against 66% for departures after 9 PM. Later flights inherit delays from earlier ones, so the first departures of the day usually run best.
- Which airline is most on time from LGA to BUF?
- Republic, with a season-adjusted 69% chance of operating and arriving on time over 1,899 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
- What is the worst month for delays on LGA to BUF?
- June (75% on time); the best was September (89%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
- Is this a prediction for my flight?
- No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.
More routes from LGA
- BUF to LGA (return)
- LGA to ORD 67%
- LGA to ATL 76%
- LGA to BOS 73%
- LGA to DFW 70%
- LGA to MIA 70%
- LGA to MCO 69%
- LGA to DCA 68%
- LGA to DEN 71%
- LGA to FLL 68%
- LGA to CLT 77%
- LGA to IAH 76%
- LGA to DTW 78%
Live status: FAA delays and ground stops