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Route on-time record

DTW to SDF: most on-time flights and the best time to fly

Detroit (Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport) to Louisville (Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport). 1,238 nonstop flights in Jun 2025 to May 2026, 77% arrived within 15 minutes and 1.2% were cancelled. The most reliable flight number was SkyWest 3821 at 8:40 AM.

Flying on a specific date? We’ll adjust for the month, the weekday and the forecast.

DTW → SDF

Detroit to Louisville: 1,238 nonstop flights a year

On time (12 months)

77%

Cancelled

1.2%

avg delay 20 min

Best time to leave

After 9 PM

90% on time vs 68% 3 to 6 PM

Most reliable airline

Republic

79% chance on time

Check DTW to SDF fares

Fares open on our travel partner (Aviasales). Pick the flight number you chose here.

Most reliable nonstop flights

Ranked by the chance the flight operates and arrives within 15 minutes of schedule, from Jun 2025 to May 2026 records.

  1. #1 · SkyWest 3821 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    8:40 AM → 10:10 AM1h 30m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-06.

    80%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    81%
    Cancelled
    2.2%
    Avg arrival delay
    11 min
    • Arrived on time 81% of the time (88 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside DTW's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 64% of its 28 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Moderate track record · 88 flights

    Find 8:40 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  2. #2 · SkyWest 3993 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    8:30 AM → 9:59 AM1h 29m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    79%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    81%
    Cancelled
    1.2%
    Avg arrival delay
    17 min
    • Arrived on time 81% of the time (257 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside DTW's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 64% of its 28 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 257 flights

    Find 8:30 AM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  3. #3 · Republic 5832 · sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express

    7:55 PM → 9:15 PM1h 23m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    78%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    79%
    Cancelled
    0.8%
    Avg arrival delay
    21 min
    • Arrived on time 79% of the time (360 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Departs outside DTW's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 64% of its 28 ground stops and delay programs started).

    Strong track record · 360 flights

    Find 7:55 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  4. #4 · SkyWest 4120 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    12:30 PM → 1:51 PM1h 23m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    78%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    83%
    Cancelled
    0.0%
    Avg arrival delay
    10 min
    • Arrived on time 83% of the time (40 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Never cancelled in 40 scheduled flights.
    • Departs outside DTW's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 64% of its 28 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (40 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 40 flights

    Find 12:30 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  5. #5 · SkyWest 3931 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    12:19 PM → 1:37 PM1h 18m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-04-12.

    75%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    73%
    Cancelled
    3.2%
    Avg arrival delay
    12 min
    • Arrived on time 73% of the time (30 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Cancelled 3.2% of the time (1 of 31).
    • Departs outside DTW's trouble window (1 PM to 7 PM, when 64% of its 28 ground stops and delay programs started).
    • Short track record (30 flights), so its score leans on the airline's record at this hour.

    Limited track record · 30 flights

    Find 12:19 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

  6. #6 · SkyWest 3957 · sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska

    3:55 PM → 5:15 PM1h 22m nonstop

    Local times, typical schedule. Last flown 2026-05-31.

    67%

    chance on time

    On time (history)
    66%
    Cancelled
    1.1%
    Avg arrival delay
    25 min
    • Arrived on time 66% of the time (184 flights, Jun 2025 to May 2026).
    • Leaves in this route's least on-time window (3 to 6 PM: 68% on time; After 9 PM: 90%).
    • Departs inside DTW's trouble window: 64% of its 28 ground stops and delay programs started between 1 PM and 7 PM.

    Moderate track record · 184 flights

    Find 3:55 PM flight fares Opens this date on Aviasales

Airlines on this route

Season-adjusted chance of operating and arriving on time.

  • Republic Airways (sold as American Eagle, Delta Connection or United Express)79%

    408 flights · 80% on time as flown · 0.9% cancel

  • SkyWest Airlines (sold as United Express, Delta Connection, American Eagle or Alaska)75%

    795 flights · 76% on time as flown · 1.5% cancel

On time by departure time

All airlines, scheduled local departure, Jun 2025 to May 2026.

  • Before 9 AM81%

    356 flights · avg delay 16 min

  • Noon to 3 PM79%

    237 flights · avg delay 13 min

  • 3 to 6 PM68%

    269 flights · avg delay 27 min

  • 6 to 9 PM77%

    321 flights · avg delay 23 min

  • After 9 PM90%

    42 flights · avg delay 5 min

Best day: Wednesday (86%). Worst: Sunday (80%).

On time by month

All airlines, Jun 2023 to May 2026. Several years per month, so one stormy season doesn't define a month. Travel-month estimates use this seasonal pattern.

J
71
F
83
M
80
A
85
M
82
J
80
J
76
A
82
S
92
O
92
N
86
D
79

What delays this route

  • Airline (crew, maintenance, boarding)58%
  • Severe weather18%
  • Late-arriving aircraft14%
  • Air traffic control and airport volume10%

Share of delay minutes by the cause airlines report to the US DOT.

Historical odds, not a guarantee. Built from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time reports (Jun 2025 to May 2026), FAA ground stop and delay program advisories, and 20 years of airport weather observations. Covers US airlines that report to the DOT; schedules are flights operated recently, so confirm times when you book. ATIS Alerts is not affiliated with any airline. Fares are what Aviasales travelers saw in recent searches (USD, one way, 1 adult), not live quotes; the partner site shows the current price. Fare links go to our travel partner and may earn us a commission at no cost to you. Affiliate disclosure

DTW to SDF questions

What time of day is best to fly DTW to SDF?
After 9 PM: 90% of flights arrived on time, against 68% for departures 3 to 6 PM.
Which airline is most on time from DTW to SDF?
Republic, with a season-adjusted 79% chance of operating and arriving on time over 408 flights. The adjustment compares each airline with what the route did in the months it flew, so a carrier that skipped a stormy month gets no free credit.
What is the worst month for delays on DTW to SDF?
January (71% on time); the best was October (92%), averaged over Jun 2023 to May 2026.
Is this a prediction for my flight?
No. These are historical odds from the US DOT on-time reports, FAA advisories and airport weather records. Check your flight status and the FAA delay board on the day you fly.

More routes from DTW

Live status: FAA delays and ground stops